MLB Player Props: Can Carrasco Keep up the K’s at Kauffman?

MLB Player Props: Can Carrasco Keep up the K’s at Kauffman? article feature image

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carlos Carrasco.

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/unders for Carlos Carrasco, Brad Keller and Chad Bettis.

So much for my new winning streak. One would imagine that a pitcher would strikeout more than five batters if he struck out the side in the first inning. But no.

Spencer Turnbull decided to go and screw the pooch, as he managed just four strikeouts in four innings. Can’t even get us a push? Pathetic. I vomited my gizzards right into the gutter when I saw the events transpire.

Today is a new day, and here are three strikeout props offering value on Friday.

MLB Player Props, Friday April 12

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 1:50 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Indians SP Carlos Carrasco

The pick: Over 7.5 (-120)

Carlos Carrasco isn’t off to a hot start this year, but don’t let his 7.71 ERA fool you. He has struck out 16 batters in just 9.1 innings compared to just two walks. However, he’s getting BABIP-ed to death, as more than half of balls put in play off him have gone for hits thus far.

I’d be flabbergasted if that number didn’t drop tonight in Kansas City. The Royals have some decent bats that can do some damage, but that damage should be limited in tonight’s unfavorable hitting conditions.

Carrasco has a significant track record of racking up strikeouts, as he’s averaged more than 10.3 K/9 since the start of the 2015 season.

I expect there to be plenty of strikeouts in this game, which is shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel. The over/under has dropped from 8 to 7.5, with Carrasco’s strikeout over/under sitting pretty at 7.5. We’re projecting 9.1 for the veteran right-hander.

Royals SP Brad Keller

The Pick: Over 4.5 (-103)

Ah, the other pitcher in the aforementioned pitcher’s duel in which I expect many-a-strikeout.

Keller gets to face an Indians lineup that is striking out more than any other team in the league. Although, it does find a way to not strikeoutwhen facing Spencer Turnbull …

Keller isn’t much of a strikeout artist, but is one of the Royals’ promising young arms. This Indians lineup isn’t much to look at, and we’re projecting 5.5 strikeouts for the Flowery Branch native.

Rockies SP Chad Bettis

The Pick: Over 3.5 (-114)

Talk about setting a low bar. The Rockies and Giants have both been abysmal at the plate this year, as one who watched yesterday’s 1-0 Giants win may have noticed.

Bettis is in a similar situation as Keller. He doesn’t strike out many batters, but he faces a poor lineup, has favorable weather and his first name rhymes with Brad.

Also like Keller, we are projecting 5.5 strikeouts for Bettis, but with a strikeout total of just 3.5, Bettis’ value is even better. At the time of writing, this is the highest rated prop in our model.

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