The 2025 MLB playoffs are (nearly) here!
Below, I'll examine the 2025 MLB playoff field and provide updated projections for pennant and World Series futures.
In-season, I added futures on the Mariners (+3000 and +2400 World Series, and +1400, +1100, and +1000 AL Pennant) both at the All-Star Break, and following their acquisitions of both Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez.
Let's discuss whether there's still value in the current AL favorite or in any other contenders to make a run in October.
You can find my projections for Tuesday's Wild Card Game 1s in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. Follow me in the Action Network App for bet notifications, including sides, totals, and future additions throughout the playoffs. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
MLB Playoff Predictions, Odds, Expert Picks for World Series, Pennant, More
MLB Playoff Teams: Performance to Date
Before diving into my future projections, I'll examine how the contending teams stack up in multiple phases.
It's always worth noting that this type of data captures the whole season for these teams and may not accurately represent the composition of their current rosters after accounting for injuries, trades, and prospect promotions.
According to the Pythagorean record and run differential, the Chicago Cubs were the unluckiest team (-4 wins) compared to their final record, with the Red Sox (-3 wins) just behind them.
Conversely, the Guardians made the playoffs with a negative run differential (-6), finishing seven wins above expectation. Cleveland is the hottest team in the field, surging to the AL Central title with a 19-7 record in September, while the Tigers are the coldest, going in the opposite direction, at 7-16.
Notably, the 2023 Marlins had the lowest run differential (-57) of any team ever to make the playoffs.
Toronto also overachieved by seven wins, while the Yankees underachieved by two, meaning that New York could have won the AL East by nearly 10 games, rather than losing on a tiebreak.
The Dodgers had the best winning percentage (56.5%) against good opponents. Conversely, the Cubs, Guardians, and Reds went below .500 against teams with winning records.
The Mariners were luckiest in one-run games (58%), while, despite potentially having the best relief pitcher in the field, the Red Sox were the only playoff team to finish below .500 (44.8%) in one-run contests.
Pitching Quality
While they still have an excellent playoff rotation, season-long numbers for the Phillies include contributions from Zack Wheeler, who suffered a season-ending injury.
The Dodgers and Mariners had the two best starting staffs after the Trade Deadline, finishing first and second, respectively, in rotation xFIP and K-BB% over the final two months of the season.
Conversely, the Yankees, Cubs, and Padres ranked in the bottom half of the league in xFIP in August and September, alongside their AL East rivals — Toronto (18th), Boston (19th), and New York (22nd) — and also ranked below average in K-BB% over that span.
Surprisingly, the Cubs had the best bullpen in baseball after the Trade Deadline (1st in xFIP and K-BB%). Unsurprisingly, the Guardians were best among AL playoff squads over the same span (3rd in xFIP and K-BB%)
The Tigers finished 21st in xFIP, and 29th in K-BB% down the stretch — the shakiest bullpen remaining in the field. The Blue Jays (15th xFIP, 26th K-BB%) also have a sketchy relief group.
The Dodgers' bullpen finished 19th in second-half xFIP, but ranked 9th in K-BB%, 2nd in Stuff+ (110), and 7th in Pitching+ (104) over that span; their bullpen concerns may be overblown.
Offensive Production and Splits
I'm typically drawn to teams that put the ball in play in October, and the Blue Jays (18.7, 2nd), Brewers (19.0%, 3rd), and Padres (19.6%) ranked among the top offenses at strikeout avoidance after the Trade Deadline.
Still, the Brewers (14th in ISO) and Padres (19th) don't hit for nearly as much power as the Jays (6th), whose combination of contact and power is only matched by the Dodgers (9th in K%%, 5th in ISO in the second half).
Toronto's offense should be bolstered by Anthony Santander's recent return, as well as the expectation of having Bo Bichette back for the ALDS.
Conversely, the Yankees (24.9% second-half K%) carry a significantly higher swing-and-miss rate into the playoffs than they did last season, a risky offensive datapoint, alongside the Tigers (24.8%), Reds (24.3%), and Mariners (24.1%). New York (1st in ISO) and Seattle (4th) make up for their whiffs with power, but the Tigers (16th) and Reds (24th) do not.
The Padres have notable righty/lefty splits, especially considering they will face two left-handed starters to begin the Wild Card round; San Diego prefers to hit right-handed pitching.
The Reds and Guardians also perform significantly better against righties than lefties.
The Tigers, however, prefer left-handed pitching, but may not face a southpaw starter in Cleveland until a potential Game 3.
Baserunning & Defense – Team Rankings
Lastly, I compared the remaining contenders by combining their rankings in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Outs Above Average (OAA), and Baserunning Runs Above Average (BsR). The Cubs seemingly rank best — and the Mariners worst — in these hidden areas.
The Cubs are the only consensus top-five defensive club in the playoffs, across both major defensive metrics, with the Blue Jays and Red Sox the only other teams ranking in the top 10 by both measurements.
Conversely, the Mariners and Reds are the only teams that grade out as below-average defensive clubs by both advanced metrics.
Depending on which metric you trust, the Brewers or Dodgers could either rate as elite defensive clubs or closer to league average. Alternatively, the Phillies, Tigers, and Yankees can be ranked as either above-average or below-average defensive clubs.
The Brewers, Cubs, and Phillies — with Trea Turner back from the IL — rank as the best baserunning teams in the field, while the Mariners, Yankees, and Blue Jays are below average on the basepaths.
The baserunning metrics tend to correlate with sprint speed: the Phillies (1st), Brewers (2nd), and Cubs (10th) ranked among the fastest teams, while the Yankees (20th), Mariners (22nd), and Blue Jays (27th) each finished among the slowest teams.
Pennant Projections
The consensus projection — which is an average of the forecasts from FanGraphs, ATC, The Bat X, OOPSY, and PECOTA — shows an edge on the Seattle Mariners to win the AL Pennant, and on the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the NL Pennant.
The least optimistic AL pennant projection for the Mariners is 37.1% or +170 implied from FanGraphs, while the most optimistic forecast is 39.4% or +154 implied from ATC. Bet Seattle to win the AL Pennant down to +175 (36.4% implied) at a 2% edge compared to the composite projection.
They have the easiest playoff path — facing the winner of Detroit and Cleveland in the ALCS — and had the best rotation (2nd in MLB behind the Dodgers), second-best lineup (119 wRC+; NYY at 122), and second-best bullpen in the AL (behind Cleveland), after the Trade Deadline.
The least optimistic NL pennant projection for the Dodgers is 26.2% or +282 implied from FanGraphs, while their most optimistic projection is 33.3% or +200. Bet the Dodgers to win the NL Pennant down to +265, at a 2% edge compared to the projection.
The Dodgers have the best lineup in the NL, and the best rotation in MLB – by xFIP, K-BB%, and Pitching+ – after the Trade Deadline.
The Padres are the only other consensus value bet based on publicly available projections, ranging from as high as 15.9% (+520 implied) from The Bat to as low as 12.5% (+700 implied) from FanGraphs.
However, my personal projections differ from the publicly available numbers. While my model is as high on Los Angeles and Seattle as these public projections, I'm both lower on San Diego and higher on their wild card opponent, Chicago.
The public projections would typically recommend betting San Diego down to +747, at a 2% edge compared to the projection, but I'm personally passing on the Padres.
For more on the wild card series matchups – and any series bets for the wild card round, make sure to check out my Game 1 previews.
World Series Projections
The same teams mentioned for pennant futures — the Mariners (projected +378, listed +500) and Dodgers (projected +453, listed +500) – offer value to win the World Series compared to composite projections.
However, unlike the pennant market, the Blue Jays—not the Padres—are the one alternative selection I would consider.
Toronto recently welcomed Anthony Santander back to their lineup, should get Bo Bichette back for the ALDS, and has an intriguing rotation led by former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber and electric rookie Trey Yesavage. Moreover, the Blue Jays put the ball in play more than any other offense, and grade out as the best defensive club in my model.
Still, without factoring in PECOTA's love for Toronto (projected 12% or +733 implied World Series), they'd be closer to +900 consensus, and aligned more closely with their market odds.
Consider betting the Mariners down to +403 (19.9% implied), the Dodgers to +485 (17.1% implied), or the Blue Jays to +1000 (9.1 % implied) to win the World Series – with each price target set at a minimum one percent edge compared to the composite projection.
Alternatively, you can bet the Dodgers to lead the playoffs in runs scored (+650). While this isn't a lock to hit if they win the World Series – the runner-up Phillies (2022) and Astros (2021) scored more throughout the playoffs than the eventual champion Astros (2022) and Braves (2021) – I do like that the odds are significantly better than their best available World Series price.
The Dodgers cleared the next-closest offense by 28 runs scored last postseason; and it's difficult to imagine them not leading the playoffs in scoring if they repeat as champions while playing two or three additional games in the Wild Card Round.
Since I already have futures on the Mariners for the Pennant and World Series, I'm unlikely to add more on Seattle at this stage personally; still, if I didn't already have positions on the Mariners — and was starting from scratch — I'd be building my futures portfolio around them.
World Series Matchups
Combining the teams that pop up as potential +EV bets to win their respective pennants or the World Series (Mariners in the AL; Dodgers and Padres in the NL) creates additional value in the World Series matchup market:
- Dodgers vs. Mariners: +1200 at FanDuel (projected +785)
- Padres vs. Mariners +2200 at FanDuel (projected +1787)
If you manually parlay Pennant winners together, you can sometimes — but not always — get better odds at the same book.
For example, you can parlay the Mariners AL (+500) and Dodgers NL (+320) at FanDuel for a payout of +1160 (7.9% implied) – giving you a 3.4% edge compared to my projected matchup price (+785, 11.3% implied), but they offer the wager as an exact matchup bet at +1200 – a edge of 3.6%
There are other instances where books have an exact matchup< market but you get more value and better odds by parlaying the pennant winners together; so make sure to try both options if you are going to place this style of wager.
Bets
- NL Pennant: Los Angeles Dodgers (+320, 0.75u) at FanDuel; bet to +265
- Team to Score Most 2025 Postseason Runs: Los Angeles Dodgers (+650, 0.15u) at Caesars; bet to +600
- World Series Matchup: Dodgers vs. Mariners (+1200, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +975
Value Recommendations
- AL Pennant: Seattle Mariners (+500) at ESPN BET; bet to +175
- World Series: Seattle Mariners (+300) at ESPN BET; bet to +400
- World Series: Toronto Blue Jays (+1000) at BetRivers; bet to +1000
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