MLB PRO Report: Sharp Action Hitting Marlins vs. Braves, Yankees vs. Rays (Wednesday, Oct. 7)

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Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Kiermaier

Tonight’s MLB slate has been met with some sharp action on two games in particular, and in almost identical ways.

Both the Marlins-Braves and Yankees-Rays series are coming off Tuesday games that featured double-digit run totals, easily cashing both overs, and both games opened with a Wednesday over/under just a half-run higher.

Naturally, the public has gravitated to the overs once again. But according to our MLB PRO Report, sharps haven’t — and neither have our experts.

Let’s take a look.


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Marlins vs. Braves Game 2 PRO Report

Thanks in large part to an initial line change as a result of the over’s backing, the under has drawn the bigger bets from sharps, and is a match for one of our PRO Systems.

[Try PRO for FREE to track all the sharp action hitting Wednesday’s playoff slate.]

Sharp Action

The earliest sportsbooks to market had this total pegged at 8.5, and have been getting slammed with bets on the over. As a result, this number shifted up to 9 (which is where several later books opened).

That’s when sharps stepped in and confirmed the original line to be correct.

Five Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action, have been triggered on the under — four of which came during the total’s brief stint at 9.

That sent the market back to its opener even though it makes for an easier bet for most customers, indicating just how respected those sharp bettors are.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

In addition to the SI Bet Signals and reverse line movement on this total, the discrepancy between bets and money has served as another sign of professional under action.

While driving just 26% of actual tickets, the under has dominated the money distribution, generating 41% of the loot as of the late morning.

And since sharps are more likely to be the ones making bigger bets, a discrepancy as large as that can certainly be used to help point out the the pro side.

Big Money edge: Under

PRO Systems

Even without the confirmed sharp action, the huge public backing of this over puts the under in a profitable position almost on its own.

Perhaps for the same reason (the line being inflated due to a public overreaction), unders are 1400-1142-118 (55.1%) since 2005 when receiving no more than 35% of bets in games between two winning teams.

PRO Systems edge: Under


Yankees vs. Rays Game 3 PRO Report

Once again, sharper bettors have taken a liking to the under in tonight’s all-important Yankees-Rays Game 3. It’s not just them, though.

Our top MLB experts have also been backing the low-scoring game, and a PRO betting system suggests that history is on that side as well.

[Try PRO for FREE to track all the sharp action hitting Wednesday’s playoff slate.]

Sharp Action

While only 21% of bettors are taking the under, some books have dropped the number to 8.5, while others have simply juiced up the under to -120. But in either case, the line move away from a very popular side should tell you something about what sort of bettors are among that minority.

Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed two cases of sharp action hitting this under, which has been the driving force in the line shift.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

While there’s still plenty of time for these figures to regress a bit, it’s certainly worth noting that as of the afternoon, the 21% majority on the under has accounted for 83% of actual money hitting that side.

And since big bets are more likely to come from sharps, that’s another strong hint that the pros are going against the public.

Big Money edge: Under

PRO Systems

When two winning teams meet and the public likes the over, history says you’ve got a recipe for an under.

As a result of that, our PRO System, Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (with a 55% win rate over more than 2,600 games), is showing this game as a match.

PRO Systems edge: Under

Top Experts

In addition to the sharps, two of our top MLB experts are backing this under.

You can follow all our experts’ pick in the Action App.

Top Experts edge: Under


Check out our new MLB PRO Report, where we highlight key factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.

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