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MLB Odds & Player Props: Value on Joe Musgrove & Mitch Keller (Tuesday, April 26)

MLB Odds & Player Props: Value on Joe Musgrove & Mitch Keller (Tuesday, April 26) article feature image
Credit:

Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove

  • There's plenty of intrigue in the MLB player props market tonight.
  • Mitch Keller and Jose Musgrove, in particular, have caught the eye of our MLB player props expert.
  • Continue reading for how he's betting those two, including full analysis on the picks.

Another Tuesday, another round of MLB player props to sift through.

Today, I’ve found two pitchers that I love to go over their listed totals. After a shortened spring training, our beloved MLB rotation guys have their arms stretched out and strikeout numbers should rise going forward.

That starts today with Mitch Keller and Joe Musgrove.

Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.

Mitch Keller over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Brewers vs. Pirates Brewers -170
First Pitch 6:35 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

Mitch Keller isn’t one to notch a lot of strikeouts. He went over this total in just nine of his 24 starts last season (37.5%) on his way to posting only 8.23 K/9 over 100 innings.

But things might be different this season. Keller’s fastball velocity is up a full 2.5 ticks, and all of his breaking stuff is up as well. He can now get guys to miss, and it’s why he’s skyrocketed to over 10 K/9 through three early starts.

Image credit: Baseball Savant

Plus, it’s worth fading a Brewers team that’s posted the seventh-highest strikeout rate (25%) and the third-lowest wRC+ (75). Milwaukee’s lineup is lost in the woods, and there are no signs of things changing.

Just last week, Keller waltzed into Milwaukee and struck out seven Brewers over 5 1/3 innings on only 75 pitches.

I love this matchup. Our Action Labs Projections mark Keller for 4.9 Ks tonight, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 4.86.

Either way, it’s enough to back Keller against Milwaukee.

Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-105)

Action Labs Grade: 7/10

Joe Musgrove over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Padres vs. Reds Padres -170
First Pitch 6:40 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

Joe Musgrove has been pounding the strike zone. Both his called strike rate and called strike plus whiff rate are up 4% compared to 2021, and the strikeouts have come as a result.

Image credit: Baseball Savant

He’s gone over this line in all three of his starts as a result, recording a whopping 21 punchouts over 19 IP. That includes his last start against these Cincinnati Reds, where he notched seven in 6 1/3.

While the Reds’ lineup can be dominant, this season has been very interesting. Cincinnati’s 29.2% strikeout rate paces the league by quite a bit, as the Reds’ zone-contact rate has dropped considerably from last season (currently 79.7%, eighth-lowest in MLB).

Our Action Labs Projections mark Musgrove for 6.0 Ks today, while FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections have him at about 5.9. Either way, it’s worth betting him to see if he can keep up this level of success.

Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-160)

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