MLB Props Odds & Picks: 6 Best Bets For Dinger Tuesday, Including Dodgers’ Trea Turner (July 26)
Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Image. Pictured: Trea Turner (Dodgers)
Each Tuesday, FanDuel runs a popular promotion that allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2021 was 2.44, you will receive an average of $12.20 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
Even though home runs have been down in the 2022 season thus far, the promotion remains +EV, and there are signs that homers are trending up in the warmer months again.
If you want to learn more on how Dinger Tuesday works, here’s an explainer.
Here are my favorite selections for Tuesday’s slate.
Marlins at Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Jonathan India +470
India’s season-long data is skewed because the Reds’ second baseman played through injury early in the season. Don’t read too much into his season-long drop in Hard Hit Rate and Barrel Rate because we know what he can be — he won NL Rookie of the Year last season.
It’s taken India some time, but he’s trending back toward being that hitter once again recently. He looks healthy, as he recently hit his hardest ball of the year at 111.3 mph.
As good as Pablo Lopez was to begin the season, he’s seen a drop-off in effectiveness in the last month. While it’s tempting to fade Hunter Greene for this promo, most of Miami’s power is out of the lineup, or clearly -EV based on lines.
If he keeps hitting as he has been recently, India won’t be priced this high at home for much longer.
Braves at Phillies, 7:05 p.m. ET
Pick: J.T. Realmuto +560
I know that both Spencer Strider and Aaron Nola are excellent pitchers, but the run environment is too good at Citizens Bank Park to pass this game on Tuesday.
The wind is blowing out, and it’s humid and hot in Philadelphia. All of that should enhance ball flight.
— Ballpark Pal (@BallparkPal) July 26, 2022
With the home run boost conditions in Philadelphia, I’m targeting a hitter who can benefit most from that.
I’d argue it’s J.T. Realmuto, who hits a lot of line drives and has seen that rate — and his wOBA — sharply increase lately during a hot stretch.
There’s plenty of decent options in this game, though, and given the conditions in Philadelphia, it may not even take a barrel to get a homer.
Cardinals at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET
Pick: Alejandro Kirk +560
Kirk has a rare combination of a plus hit tool and raw power, as displayed by his sub 10% strikeout rate and 110+ max exit velocity. Kirk is one of the most underrated hitters in all of baseball, and a 8.8% Barrel Rate is even more impressive when you consider how many balls he puts in play.
With the two top power options out of the Cardinals’ lineup due to COVID-19 protocols, and an improving José Berrios on the bump for Toronto, I’m targeting the Jays’ lineup for homers.
Andre Pallante is one of the worst regular starters in MLB based on K-BB%, and I’m skeptical he will maintain his elite ground ball rate at this point.
Kirk has 25+ home run-type power in a full season and shouldn’t be +560 against Pallante.
Yankees at Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Pete Alonso +350
Alonso is +350 against an average left-handed pitcher, and that’s almost always going to generate a bet for me on Dinger Tuesday.
Even if it’s not necessarily +EV based on price alone, it becomes that because of the promotion. Alonso not only has an excellent Barrel Rate (90th percentile league-wide), but he’s improved his launch angle by multiple degrees and hit a new career high there.
His improved fly ball rate of late has helped pull him out of the mini slump that he went through. Alonso has begun lifting the ball again at the plate, and the result has been an improved ISO (isolated power).
White Sox at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Kris Bryant +350
Coors Field is a must play every Dinger Tuesday because of the high totals and homer-friendly park factors. Throw in two struggling pitchers who have struggled to keep the ball in the yard amidst drops in the quality of their stuff, and the conditions could be great for homers on Tuesday.
Enter Bryant, who has been excellent since returning from injury — even if the power hasn’t quite been there at this point.
He has hit five homers, all on the road.
I don’t like to say a player is due, but it’s not long until Bryant starts producing at Coors Field, and I want to be there when he does. I’m happy to buy low on his power while the rest of his metrics continue to show improvement.
Like this rolling wOBA chart:
Nationals at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Trea Turner +400
I have -EV bias in Dinger Tuesday, and it’s going back to players that have cashed for me in previous weeks.
Turner has an excellent matchup with Nationals righty Josiah Gray, though. Gray has solid stuff and generates a lot of whiffs, but he also gives up a good amount of homers. He has allowed a 12% Barrel Rate (same as last year), and it’s a major reason he’s failed to consistently impress in the big leagues.
Turner is just shy of career highs in both Barrel Rate and Hard Hit Rate, so there’s clear signs that he is worth a bet as one of the medium-priced options on the Dodgers.
Facing a homer-prone pitcher too, I’d play Turner at +350 or better.
Additional Picks: Carlos Correa +400 | Manny Machado +350