MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nats vs. Giants, 2 Other Monday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nats vs. Giants, 2 Other Monday Games article feature image
Credit:

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jeff Samardzija

  • Sharp action is hitting tonight's MLB slate on 3 games in particular, including A's-Cubs (8:10 p.m. ET) and Nats-Giants (9:45).
  • Sports Insights' Bet Signals help reveal the plays that pros are making.

As far as Monday MLB slates go, today’s is relatively full. Thanks in part to a Marlins-Mets doubleheader, there are 14 games from which bettors can choose.

Sharps aren’t waiting around to make moves either, as they’ve already caused adjustments on three games in particular, including A’s-Cubs and Nats-Giants.


>> All odds as of 12:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

7:10 p.m. ET | Jacob Waguespack (2-1, 4.80 ERA) vs. Charlie Morton (12-3, 2.78 ERA)

Boasting the second-lowest total on Monday’s slate, this AL East matchup has become a favorite for bettors looking to back an over. Seventy percent of bets, to be exact, have hit the over since opening.

Despite the attraction to the over, oddsmakers are standing their ground with the opening number. In fact, the juice has even shifted a bit toward the under, which has gone from -110 to -112, or even -115 in some cases.

That reverse line movement should be a dead giveaway that sharper bettors are favoring the under, and Sports Insights Bet Signals — indicators of professional money causing market changes — have confirmed that. Five signals, more than any other play tonight, have landed on the under.

It’s certainly not unusual for a Tampa home game to be attracting sharp under money. Since 2005, only three ballparks have been more profitable for unders than the Trop.

Sharp angle: Under (remains at 8)

Oakland Athletics @ Chicago Cubs

8:05 p.m. ET| Chris Bassitt (7-5, 3.84 ERA) vs. Kyle Hendricks (8-8, 3.07 ERA)

Bettors generally don’t get much joy out of rooting for unders, hence the frequency of popular overs — including the other two games mentioned here. Once every a few games though, oddsmakers will set a total that will entice bettors to take an under — or at the very least, be torn.

That’s what seems to be happening in tonight’s A’s-Cubs matchup, as 50% of bets are hitting both sides of the total. With tickets split down the middle, a move from 9/9.5 up to 9.5/10 should be serve as another indication of sharp money.

Two SI Bet Signals have hit the over, which helps explain the move, but the kicker in this case has been the money percentages.

While just half of bettors are banking on the over, they account for a whopping 90% of actual dollars being wagered thus far. That obviously is going to cause a liability for sportsbooks, but perhaps more telling is that bigger bettors are clearly on the over, and which bettors are more likely to be betting higher amounts?

Sharps.

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 9.5 to 10)

Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants

9:45 p.m. ET | Erick Fedde (1-2, 4.67) vs. Jeff Samardzija (8-8, 3.75 ERA)

There’s still plenty of time before the first pitch is thrown tonight in San Francisco, but that doesn’t means sharps haven’t already helped shape this over/under.

Opening at 8.5, this was (and still is) another popular over spot for most bettors. Sixty-four percent of bets have hit the over, which initially caused oddsmakers to to move the total up by a half-run to a flat 9. That’s when sharps stepped in.

Two more Bet Signals hit the under at 9, most recently at -118, which convinced oddsmakers to return to their original listing of 8.5.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 8.5)