MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cubs-Cardinals, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12)
- Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games on Tuesday, headlined by Cubs-Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also Giants-Phillies and Braves-Nationals (both at 7:05 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys kicked off their week in style yesterday, going either 2-0-1 or 2-1 with their Monday plays. After easily cashing the Marlins and Rockies moneylines, the third and final play was the Blue Jays-Royals under. The total opened at 10 and closed at 9.5. Toronto won 7-3, meaning early sharps who hit the under 10 pushed while late under 9.5 bettors lost.
Just as in life, timing (and shopping for the best line) is everything when it comes to betting.
Overall it was a profitable night for contrarian bettors, as teams receiving less than 40% of bets posted 2.55 units won ($100 bettor made $255). The Tigers (+222, only 17% of bets) were the biggest hit of the night, upsetting the Angels 7-2.
Monday #MLB Betting Results
Home teams 5-2 (+1.62 units)
Teams <40% bets: 3-2 (+2.55 units)
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 30, 2019
>> All odds as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
San Francisco Giants (54-52) at Philadelphia Phillies (55-50)
7:05 p.m. ET | Tyler Beede (3-4, 4.98 ERA) vs. Drew Smyly (1-5, 7.69 ERA)
When betting over/unders, data-minded wiseguys go through a checklist in their head: betting percentages, dollar percentages, line movement, bet signals, weather, umpire and historical data. The goal is to act like a lawyer and build a case. Check off as many boxes as possible so you can convince the jury. If sharps can check off only a few boxes, they’ll be inclined to lay off. But if all the boxes are checked it’s an auto-fire.
This total is a perfect example of checking off all the boxes. It opened at 10. Currently 59% of bets and 90% of dollars are taking the over, indicating a slight public lean, but more importantly, heavy smart money from pro bettors with an edge. We’ve also tracked a pair of reverse line moves on the over 10 with no conflicting under plays (or buyback), which means sharps are in agreement across the market.
We’re also looking at near-perfect “over weather” in Philly. It’s a hot, clear night (91 degrees at first pitch) and the wind is howling out to dead center at 10 mph, hopefully turning a few warning-track fly balls into first-row homers.
According to our Bet Labs software, the over has cashed at a 54% clip (+93.82 units) when the wind is blowing out at 8 mph or more since 2005. And windy overs are especially profitable at Citizens Bank Park. When the wind is blowing out to center in Phillies home games, the over has gone 128-90 (61.5%) since 2005, winning 43.75 units.
High-total overs have been a big money-maker for sharps this season. When the total is 10 or higher in conference games, the over has hit 55.2% of the time, cashing +26.59 units.
It also doesn’t hurt that both teams were off yesterday (which means their position players and hitters are rested). This season, when both teams are coming off a day of rest in a non-division game, the over has gone 54-33 (62.1%), winning 18.17 units and posting an 18.9% ROI.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 10 to 10.5)
Atlanta Braves (62-45) at Washington Nationals (57-49)
7:05 p.m. ET | Julio Teheran (5-7, 3.42 ERA) vs. Erick Fedde (1-1, 3.40 ERA)
The Nats took last night’s series opener, 6-3, cashing as moderate -136 favorites at home. Tonight, sharps (professional bettors who bet with an edge and have a track record of success) and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun based on bias and gut instinct) both like the Braves to bounce back and steal Game 2 with one of their aces on the mound.
This line opened with Washington listed as a short -110 home favorite and Atlanta a +100 dog. Currently 62% of bets are backing the Braves, indicating a slight public lean, but those bets are accounting for 83% of dollars, signaling heavy smart money from pro dime bettors.
Wiseguys got down hard on the Braves at +115 and -101 across the market, triggering a pair of steam moves. This overload of smart money caused the line to completely flip away from the Nats (-110 to +100) and toward the Braves (+100 to -110), turning Atlanta from a dog to a favorite.
The Braves also fit a profitable Bet Labs edge, as conference favorites in high-total games (9 or higher) have gone 494-291 (62.9%) this season, winning 45.18 units with a 5.8% ROI.
Sharp angle: Braves (moved from +110 to -110)
Chicago Cubs (56-49) at St. Louis Cardinals (56-49)
8:15 p.m. ET | Yu Darvish (3-4, 4.54 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (7-7, 4.54 ERA)
The Cubs and Cardinals are the epitome of two evenly matched teams. Chicago and St. Louis have identical records and are tied for first place in the NL Central (heck, even tonight’s starting pitchers have identical ERAs). This three-game series is huge for both clubs. And of course, pros and Joes find themselves on opposite sides of tonight’s moneyline.
This divisional showdown opened with the Cubs listed as short -108 favorites and the Cardinals even-money (+100) dogs. The public is typically inclined to back a big-market club like Chicago, but tonight they’re siding with the Cards because they’re at home and have been playing better than Chicago as of late (STL 6-2 last 8 games, CHC 2-5 last 7).
However, despite 55% of bets backing St. Louis we’ve seen this line move away from the Cardinals (+100 to +110) and toward the Cubs (-108 to -120). This is a classic case of sharp reverse line movement, with pros hammering the Cubs causing the line to move in their favor despite the public Cardinals betting.
Chicago is getting only 45% of bets but a whopping 80% of dollars, further evidence of big respected pro bettors fading the trendy dog. We’ve also tracked a big steam move on the Cubbies at -114 (we haven’t seen any conflicting Cardinals moves, which means their support is almost purely public).
So far this season, unpopular favorites (receiving less than 50% of bets) have gone 136-98 (58.1%), winning 11.02 units with a 4.7% ROI.
Sharp angle: Cubs (moved from -108 to -120)