MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Diamondbacks-Padres, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Diego Padres second baseman Ian Kinsler (3) and right fielder Franmil Reyes (32)
- Wiseguys are getting down on 3 MLB Games tonight, capped off by Diamondbacks-Padres (10:10 p,m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Phillies-Cubs (7:05 p.m. ET) and Marlins-Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys gave a unit back to the books yesterday, going 1-2 with their Monday plays. The Angels were the heartbreaker, as the game was tied 1-1 going into the 8th before a Miguel Sano 2-run bomb gave Minnesota the 3-1 win. That’s the difference between a 1-2 night and a 2-1 night. Baseball betting ain’t for the faint of heart. On to the next.
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Remember: the betting market is fluid and constantly moving. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
7:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8 to 7.5)
The Phillies beat the Cubs 5-4 last night, giving over 8 bettors a sweaty win. Tonight, the public doesn’t know which way to go with the over/under, but wiseguys have taken a clear position.
This total opened at 8. Total bets are split right down the middle, yet we’ve seen the line fall to 7.5, and the juice on under 7.5 is up to -125 or -130, signaling it may fall even further to 7.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are split, so the big drop is a dead giveaway that sharps have gotten down hard on the under, creating liability for the books.
The under is getting only 50% of bets but 83% of dollars, signaling clear smart money on a low scoring game. We’ve also seen a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the under 7.5.
Why do Goodfellas love this under so much? The weather and umpire may have something to do with it.
The wind is howling in from right-center at a whopping 17 mph. Hunter Wendelstedt is also behind the plate tonight. The under has won +9.66 units with Wendelstedt calling balls and strikes since 2005.
Miami Marlins @ Detroit Tigers
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Marlins (moved from +107 to -105)
The Marlins own the worst record in baseball at 13-31. But that’s not stopping wiseguys from backing them tonight. Remember: sharps bet numbers, not teams. If they locate an edge, wiseguys get down hard. They back the most disgusting teams because they know they have the most value.
This line opened with the Tigers listed as short -116 home favorites. Despite receiving 55% of bets, we’ve seen this line fall away from Detroit (-116 to -103) and toward Miami (+107 to -105). This reverse line movement signals sharps getting down hard on Caleb Smith (3-1, 2.25 ERA) and the Fish.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we also noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the Fish, all coming at around even-money. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Tigers.
The Marlins are playing well as of late, having just swept the Mets at home. As a result, Miami fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system, Bad Team After Win (+157.76 units since 2005).
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
10:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Padres (moved from +104 to -104)
The Padres took Game 1 of the series 2-1 last night. With both teams having nearly identical records (Arizona at 25-23 to San Diego’s 24-24) and the D-backs sending ace Zack Greinke (6-1, 2.78 ERA) to the hill tonight, public bettors see a layup “bounce-back” win for the Snakes.
But sharps aren’t buying it. They’re fading the big-name pitcher and buying low on the Fathers.
This game opened with Arizona listed as short -113 road favorite. Right off the bat, this line stinks. Why is Greinke only a -113 favorite? Seems too good to be true.
Because it is.
Despite receiving 80% of bets, the Diamondbacks have fallen from -113 to -104, which means wiseguys have loaded up on the Padres and moved this game to a virtual pick’em.
We’ve tracked three steam and reverse line moves on the Fathers and they also fit the top Bet Labs PRO System, Betting Against the Public (+177.11 units since 2005).