MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Marlins-Cubs, 2 Other Monday Games
The Chicago Cubs celebrate after defeating the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field. Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Monday, headlined by Marlins-Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Nationals-Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET) and Phillies-Cardinals (8:05 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Happy Monday! With a quartet of high profile NBA and NHL playoff games tonight, recreational bettors will be focusing on the hardwood and ice. But wiseguys remain fixated on the MLB. There’s something special about grinding the same sport every single day for six-plus months. No days off.
>> All odds taken from Pinnacle as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Full Sports Betting Glossary
- How to Win with Action Network Data
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- Common Mistakes Sports Bettors Should Avoid
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers
7:40 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Brewers (-105)
Casual bettors see Max Scherzer on the mound and can’t lay off. But wiseguys are buying low on a hot Brewers club at home at a virtual pick’em price.
This line opened at a coin-flip, with both sides listed at -104. Currently 58% of bets are backing the Nationals with their ace on the mound, however the line has remained frozen. Some books have even moved to Brewers -106 or -110.
This movement toward the Brew Crew signals liability on the home team, with oddsmakers refusing to hand out a better number to sharps sweating Milwaukee.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked a pair of steam moves on MIL -102 and -105. The Beermakers are receiving only 42% of bets but 65% of dollars, further evidence of big sharp wagers in their favor.
And in the “sharps will take any edge they can get” department: The Nats’ team plane was stranded on the tarmac for 7+ hours yesterday, delaying their arrival to Milwaukee bigly.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
8:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 7.5 to 7)
When betting over/unders, recreational bettors abide by two basic rules. First, if the two starting pitchers have low ERA’s, bet the under (and vice versa). Second, if the total is high, bet the under (and vice versa).
But sharps know there’s much more that goes into it. One of the most overlooked, yet crucial, factors is Mother Nature, specifically the wind. If the wind is howling in, it maximizes the under edge, as it can knock down a first-row homer into a warning-track flyout.
That’s what we’re looking at tonight at Wrigley Field, the best windy under stadium in the bigs.
This total opened at a low 7. Public over betting (60%) pushed this line briefly to 7.5. Once the hook was available, that’s when sharps got down hard on the inflated under 7.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. The under is receiving only 40% of bets but 75% of dollars, signaling heavy smart money sweating a low-scoring game.
And last but not least: the wind. It’s blowing in from straightaway center at 10 mph, making Wrigley one of the best parks for pitchers (and worst for hitters) tonight.
According to our Bet Labs database, the under has cashed at a 55% clip (5.5% ROI) since 2005 when the wind blows in from center at 10 mph or more.
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
8:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Phillies (moved from +120 to +112)
The Cardinals have been a cash cow for bettors this season, going 20-14 for +5.09 units ($100 bettor is up $509 betting St. Louis every game). The public is boarding the Red Bird train once again, but sharps won’t be joining them.
The line opened with St. Louis listed as a moderate -130 home favorite. However, despite receiving 59% of bets, the Cards have fallen to -121.
Anytime you see the line move in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, it’s a dead giveaway that sharps caused the movement.
We noticed a big steam move on the Phillies with no conflicting signals on the Cards. Two added bonuses: The Phils are receiving more money (52%) than bets (41%) and are also a road dog with a high total (9), a profitable spot since 2005.