MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Brewers, 2 Other Tuesday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Brewers, 2 Other Tuesday Games article feature image
Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Strasburg

  • Wiseguys are getting down on 3 MLB games tonight, headlined by Nationals-Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting White Sox-Indians (6:10 p.m. ET) and Rangers-Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys gave a unit back to the books yesterday, going 1-2 with their Monday plays. Baseball is the ultimate grind. The ups and downs are unlike any other sport and can drive new bettors insane. But sharps know it’s part of the game. Stay the course and think long term. It’s a marathon not a sprint.

After analyzing Tuesday’s massive 15-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on three MLB games.


>> All odds taken from Pinnacle as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians

6:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: White Sox (moved from +143 to +123)

The White Sox upset Trevor Bauer and the Indians 9-1 last night, cashing bigly as +229 dogs. Gambler’s Fallacy says the White Sox stink and can’t possibly beat the mighty Tribe again. But sharps aren’t falling into the trap.

This game opened with Cleveland listed as a -155 home favorite. Despite receiving nearly 70% of bets, the line has fallen to -133. What caused this massive drop?

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked three steam moves and one reverse line move on the South Siders, ranging from +140 to +133. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Indians.

Chicago also finds itself in a profitable historical spot. According to our Bet Labs database, dogs receiving less than 50% of bets with high totals (8.5+) and at least 20 cents of reverse line movement have won 110.7 units since 2005.

An added bonus: Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire tonight. Since 2005, home teams have lost -23.06 units with Meals calling balls and strikes.

Texas Rangers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Pirates (-120 to -135)

Spotting sharp action isn’t as simple as following line movement. The key is comparing the line movement to the betting percentages. If the line moves in the same direction as lopsided public betting, that’s considered normal movement. But if the line moves in the opposite direction of public betting, then you know it’s caused by sharps.

This interleague showdown is a perfect example.

The line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a short -120 home favorite. Currently 67% of bettors are fading the Pirates and grabbing the plus money with the Rangers. However, the line has moved further toward the Buccos (-120 to -135) despite the public loading up on Texas.

This reverse line movement toward Pittsburgh is a clear signal that sharps are loading up on the Buccos and fading the trendy dog. After all, why would the Rangers’ price get better if average Joes are already betting them?

If it doesn’t make sense, there’s a reason behind it.

The Pirates are getting only 33% of bets but 47% of dollars, further evidence of smart money in their favor.

History is also on the Pirates’ side. Since 2005, home favorites in non-division games getting less than 40% of bets with at least 10 cents of reverse line movement have won 61.1% of the time (+10.9% ROI).

Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Brewers (+106 to -108)

The betting public is torn and doesn’t know which way to go in this one. They love getting Stephen Strasburg (3-1, 3.45 ERA) at a coin-flip price but also hate betting against the Brewers at home (21-16 overall, 14-8 at home).

Not the sharps, they’ve made up their minds. They cashed on the Brewers last night and they’re going back to the well tonight.

The Nationals opened as short -115 road favorites. And while bets are split right down the middle, the line has moved away from the Nats (-115 to +100) and toward the Brew Crew (+106 to -108).

In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move more than a cent or two if the bets are even. So what flipped Milwaukee from a dog to a favorite?

Follow the money.

The Beermakers are getting only 50% of bets but 70% of dollars, a clear sign that the big sharp wagers are in their favor.