MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Mets, 2 Other Wednesday Games
Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner (7) beats the throw to New York Mets shortstop Amed Rosario. Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games tonight, headlined by Nationals-Mets (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Dodgers-Rays and Marlins-Tigers (both at 7:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys swept the board yesterday, going a perfect 3-0 with their Tuesday plays. With no playoff hockey or basketball on tap tonight, all eyes will be on the diamond.
This is music to the ears of sharps, as they know the public has nowhere else to go for their action but MLB. This means the market will be flooded with public money and soft, exploitable lines.
>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Remember: the betting market is fluid and constantly moving. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (contrarian line freeze at 6.5)
When betting over/unders, the public abides by four main rules. If the total is high, take the under. If the total is low, take the over. If two bad pitchers are going to head-to-head, take the over. If two aces are facing off, take the under.
But sharps know there’s much more to betting a total than just following conventional wisdom.
This NL East over/under is a perfect example. With two studs facing off (Max Scherzer 3.72 ERA vs Jacob DeGrom 3.98 ERA), casual bettors see a guaranteed low scoring 2-1 game. But not the Goodfellas. They’re see an edge on a contrarian over.
This total opened at a low 6.5. Currently 60% of bets are taking the under, but it only accounts for 48% of dollars, signaling predominantly Average Joe backing. Meanwhile, despite the majority betting the under, the total has remained frozen at 6.5. This means the books are worried about dropping to 6 and handing out a better number to sharps on the over.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the Over. The wind is also blowing out to center at 5-7 MPH.
Miami Marlins @ Detroit Tigers
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Marlins (moved from +107 to +102)
Sharps cashed their Marlins play last night in epic fashion, as Miami prevailed 5-4 in an epic 11-inning win. The public says the Fish are a terrible team and can’t possibly win again tonight.
But wiseguys aren’t falling into the gambler’s fallacy trap. They’re buying low on a hot Marlins squad to steal another game in Detroit and stretch their win streak to five in a row.
This interleague showdown opened with the Tigers listed as short -116 home favorites. Despite 60% of bets backing Detroit, the line has moved away from the Tigers (-116 to -110) and toward the Marlins (+107 to +102).
This is a classic example of reverse line movement, with sharps getting down hard on the road dog and causing the line to move against the percentages toward the unpopular side.
We’ve also noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on Miami, coming at +114, +105 and +101 at various sportsbooks across the market. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Tigers.
Two added edges for Fish backers: Miami fits the profitable Bet Labs system Bad Team After Win (+157.78 units won since 2005) and CB Bucknor is the home plate ump. Since 2005, home teams have lost -19.45 units with Bucknor calling balls and strikes.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Tampa Bay Rays
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Rays (moved from +128 to +119)
Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers cashed bigly for the public last night, beating the Rays 7-3 as -141 favorites receiving 75% of bets. The public is once again going back to the Los Angeles well. But wiseguys see value on Tampa to steal Game 2 of this interleague series.
This line opened with the Dodgers listed as moderate -139 road favorites. Currently 61% of bets are laying the moneyline price with LA, yet 63% of dollars are grabbing the plus money with Tampa Bay.
This massive bets vs. dollar discrepancy is a clear sign that big money from respected pro players is backing the home dog.
We’ve also seen sharp live movement toward Tampa, as the Rays have moved from +128 down to +119 despite the public favoring the Dodgers.
Since 2005, American League teams have dominated Interleague Play, winning +126 units against their National League counterparts.