Monday Sharp Report: Pros Betting D-backs-Cubs, Two Other Games

Jul 23, 2018 1:03 AM EDT
  • Sharps have been on a roll since the All-Star break, going 8-3 for +5.5 units won over the past three days.
  • Wiseguys are eyeing a pair of contrarian Unders tonight.
  • Sharps are also buying low on a home divisional dog in the NL East.

After a disappointing first half of the MLB season, wiseguys have quietly crushed since the All-Star break. Since Friday, Sharp Report plays have gone 8-3, earning roughly +5.5 units. Pro players hope this is the start of the big second-half regression, with public favorites coming back down to earth, dogs barking and contrarian Unders continuing to cash.

After analyzing Monday’s 13-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 8:10 p.m. ET.


>> All data as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary


Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

  • Sharp angle: Under 9
  • First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET

The Red Sox scored nine runs against Detroit yesterday. Now their red-hot bats travel to Camden Yards to face Kevin Gausman and his 4.33 ERA. In the most heavily bet game of the night, public players see another easy Over, but the sharps don’t. Currently 68% of bets are taking the Over, but it accounts for only 50% of dollars. This means it’s mostly five-dollar Average Joes going Over.

Despite the heavy Over betting, the line has remained frozen at 9, and the juice has actually trended Under, moving from 9 Under -100 to 9 Under -115. This signals sharp Under liability with the next move likely down to 8.5.  Steam and reverse line moves have been triggered on the Under 9 at YouWager and Bovada, respectively, with no conflicting plays on the Over. This season, contrarian Unders (fewer than 40% bets) with a total of 8 or higher have gone 332-255 (56.6%), winning +63.06 units with a 10.2% ROI.


>> Follow Josh Appelbaum in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets.


Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

  • Sharp angle: Marlins +110
  • First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET

Earlier today, Wake and Rake legend PJ Walsh explained how sharp bettors were all over the Marlins in this one. Miami is getting only 31% of bets but 57% of dollars and has fallen from +111 to +110 since opening. This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy and sharp line freeze/reverse line movement are clear indications that smart money is on the home divisional dog.

Wiseguys at BetUs and YouWager both got down hard on Miami +125 and +120, respectively, without any conflicting plays on Atlanta. Derek Jeter’s crew also fits the profitable Bet Labs system New Series, All Signs Point to the Opponent (+181.28 units since 2005).

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs

  • Sharp angles: Under 9
  • 8:05 p.m. ET

Wiseguys are targeting a contrarian Under in this rare Wrigley Field night game. Despite two pitchers with solid ERAs going head-to-head (Patrick Corbin 3.24 and Luke Farrell 3.86), only 41% of bets are taking the Under. However, those bets account for 66% of dollars. This huge bets vs. dollars discrepancy is evidence of public bettors on the Over, but bigger, sharper wagers taking the Under.

Pro players at BetOnline hammered the Under 9, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. The BetOnline reverse line move is especially notable considering it’s the top MLB bet signal this season (+23.7 units). This has caused the juice to move from 9 Under -110 to 9 Under -119, which means the next move is likely down to 8.5. An added bonus for Under backers: the wind is blowing in from center.


All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.

Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jake Lamb and Javy Baez

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights
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