Monday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mets-Cubs, Two Other Games
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon and starting pitcher Jon Lester
- Sharps are betting three MLB games on Monday, headlined by New York Mets-Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET), with Chicago listed as a -132 favorite and an over/under 10.5
- Wiseguys are also betting Toronto Blue Jays-Baltimore Orioles (7:05 p.m. ET) and Colorado Rockies-Los Angeles Angels (10:07 p.m. ET)
With football in the air, public bettors are quickly losing interest in baseball. But not the wiseguys. They know that this is the best time of year to get down on underdogs, especially when they’re playing winning teams.
The combination of good teams being overvalued and bad teams calling up young players (who compete hard and provide a shot in the arm) creates a perfect storm for contrarian bettors.
After analyzing Monday’s seven-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 8:05 p.m. and 10:07 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
- Sharp angle: Orioles +120
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Orioles have lost eight in a row and now sit at an absurd 37-94. Tonight, they face Toronto, a team that is 12-1 against Baltimore this season.
The public says the Jays are the lock of the century. But wiseguys are backing the Birds (for no other reason than they love the pain).
Despite receiving only 23% of bets, the Orioles have moved from +127 to +120, indicating sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Pros at CRIS and Pinnacle both hammered Baltimore, triggering a pair of bet signals.
These moves are especially meaningful because CRIS and Pinnacle are the two sharpest offshore books.
Baltimore is a divisional dog with a high total (9.5), a valuable spot since 2005. They also fit two profitable Bet Labs systems: New Series, All Signs Point to Opponent (+184.24 units since 2005) and Betting Against the Public Report (+179.59 units since 2005).
New York Mets at Chicago Cubs
- Sharp angle: Mets +122
- First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
The Cubs are hosting a rare night game at Wrigley tonight. With Jon Lester (14-5, 3.64 ERA) facing Noah Syndergaard (9-3, 3.38 ERA), public bettors are flocking to this marquee matchup — and they’re hammering the Cubs.
However, despite receiving 73% of bets, Chicago has dipped from -135 to -132. This indicates sharp action and liability on the Mets. Pros at SIA and 5Dimes got down hard on New York, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves.
Another big advantage for the Mets: they’re dogs with an extremely high total (10.5 because of heavy wind out to center). High totals disproportionately favor dogs.
The Mets also fit the profitable Bet Labs system New Series, All Signs Point to Opponent (+184.24 units since 2005).
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels
- Sharp angle: Angels +129
- First pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET
These are two teams trending in opposite directions. The Rockies (71-59) are surging, having won 11 of their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the Angels (63-68) have lost eight of their last nine games.
On the bright side, at least Mike Trout is back in the lineup. In the most lopsided game of the night, more than 80% of bets are taking Colorado, yet the Rockies have fallen from -155 to -140.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give public Rockies bettors a better number? Because sharps came in on the Halos.
Pros at Pinnacle steamed LAA +142 without any conflicting signals on Colorado.
The Angels are getting more money (34%) than bets (18%), a sign of smart money in their favor, and they also match the valuable Bet Labs system Average AL Teams vs NL Teams (+119.65 units since 2005).
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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