Wednesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cardinals-Marlins, Two Other Games
Derek Dietrich. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
- Professionals are causing massive reverse line movement for tonight's Cardinals-Miami game.
- Wiseguys are also leveraging public money to find value with a pair of AL contrarian Unders.
Pro players split their four Tuesday plays, winning both totals but losing both moneylines. The Blue Jays were the killer. They checked off all the boxes for sharp players: contrarian in a heavily bet game, more money (44%) than bets (36% bets), sharp reverse line movement +117 to -108 and Pinnacle steam. Toronto took a 3-1 lead into the 8th but then imploded late and lost, 10-7, in 10 innings. The Red Sox reached +808 on the live moneyline.
After analyzing Wednesday’s 14-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m. and 8:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
- Sharp angle: Marlins +104
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Pros really love the Marlins in this one. Despite receiving only 36% of bets, Miami has moved from +127 to +104, signaling massive reverse line movement in its favor. As soon as the line opened, sharps at Pinnacle steamed the Fish +127. The wiseguys at YouWager hammered Miami +130. Even though the line fell bigly, pros at JustBet got down hard on Miami at +113. Miami also enjoys a profitable smart money discrepancy: they’re only getting 36% bets but 57% dollars.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
- Sharp angle: Under 9
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
The Twins upset the Tribe, 3-2, last night with the Under 9 cashing easily. Square bettors see a high-scoring bounce-back game tonight, but sharps are going back to the Under well. Currently 74% of bets are taking the Over. This caused the total to rise from 9 to 9.5. That’s when sharps hammered the Under, triggering a trio of steam and reverse line moves on Under 9.5 at GTBets, CRIS and 5Dimes. This season, Unders getting 40% or less bets with a total of 8 or higher have won at a 55.9% rate and produced +65.24 units won. The wind is also blowing in from left-center, another benefit for Under backers.
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New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
- Sharp angle: Under 8.5
- First pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
I’ts not often you get a contrarian Under opportunity with Luis Severino on the mound. His numbers look great on the season (14-5, 3.08 ERA), however, he has struggled in his last four starts (0-3, 9.00 ERA). Add in the fact that the Yankees face Lucas Giolito (7-8, 5.87 ERA) and the public says easy Over.
However, despite 70% taking the Over, the total has remained frozen at 8.5 and the juice has moved from 8.5 Over -110 to 8.5 Under -115 at Bookmaker, indicating Under liability . This was caused by a pair of reverse line moves on the Under 8.5 at 5Dimes and Heritage.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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