MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Angels-Twins, 2 Other Monday Games
Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) celebrates with designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) and third baseman David Fletcher (6). Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games tonight, headlined by Angels-Twins (7:40 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Astros-Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET) and Athletics-Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys are always aware of the sports betting calendar, more specifically the number of games on the board each day across all sports. When the daily schedule is light, sharps rejoice because they know all the games will be heavily bet because casual bettors have so few games to play.
Today is a perfect example. Because it’s a quiet Monday with only a handful of MLB games, no postseason NBA and only one Stanley Cup playoff game, the action-thirsty public is forced to load up on a small handful of baseball games. This leads to an increased contrarian edge for Goodfellas.
>> All odds as of 2:25 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 8 to 8.5)
The betting public is relatively split on this over/under, but sharps have taken a clear position.
This total opened at 8. Currently 56% of bets are taking the over, indicating a slight public lean. However, the over is also receiving a whopping 79% of dollars. This signals big wagers from pro bettors backing a high-scoring game.
We’ve also seen this line rise from 8 to 8.5. Typically, 56% of bets might move the juice a few cents toward the over, but it’s not lopsided enough to force a full half-run move. So we know this jump was caused by pro money, not Average Joe $5 bets.
We’ve also seen a plethora of smart money alerts on this over, with sharps crushing the Over 8 twice and the Over 8.5 twice. The fact that wiseguys kept hitting the over despite the line rising and getting worse indicates elevated pro confidence.
One reason to love this over: the wind is blowing out to straightaway center at 7 to 10 mph, making it a match for one of our top Bet Labs weather systems (+85.59 units won since 2005).
Another added bonus: Paul Emmel is behind the plate. Since 2005, the under has lost -39.02 units with Emmel calling balls and strikes.
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
7:40 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Angels (moved from +147 to +121)
The Twins sit atop the American League with an impressive 25-14 record. Tonight they’re at home and send ace Jose Berrios (6-1, 2.53 ERA) to the mound against the 19-21 Angels. Sounds like a Twinkies layup, right?
Not so fast, say the sharps.
This game opened with Minnesota listed as a -165 home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to bet the Twins as fast as they can (80% of bets), yet we’ve actually seen the line move toward the Halos (+147 to +121).
Why would the bookmakers drop the Twins price if the public is already all over them? Because pro bettors hammered Los Angeles, creating big liability for the house.
We’ve tracked four steam and reverse line moves on LAA at +138, +136, +133 and +123. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Minnesota.
The Angels, who are 10-5 in their last 15 games, also match the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Contrarian Betting Against Good Team (+130.03 units since 2005).
Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
10:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Athletics (moved from +115 to +108)
It’s not often that sharps can back a pitcher coming off a no-hitter while also bet against the public. But that’s what wiseguys are afforded tonight in the Pacific Northwest.
This game opened with Seattle listed as a relatively short -135 home favorite. Currently 67% of bets are backing the Mariners, yet the line has tumbled to -117.
What caused this peculiar line movement away from Seattle and toward Oakland? Sharp action, of course.
Wiseguys crushed Mike Fiers and the Athletics twice, triggering a pair of bet signals. This overload of pro money forced the books to drop the A’s payout (+115 to +108) despite the heavily lopsided public betting on Seattle.
The Athletics are also a road divisional dog with a high total (9), a profitable spot since 2005.
Due to the built in familiarity of playing each other 19 times per year, divisional dogs perform much better than non-divisional dogs. Also, road teams and undervalued (public loves home teams) and high totals benefit dogs as more expected runs scored leads to more variance and levels the playing field.