MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Angels-Twins, 2 Other Monday Games

May 13, 2019 02:53 PM EDT
Credit:

Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) celebrates with designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) and third baseman David Fletcher (6). Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB games tonight, headlined by Angels-Twins (7:40 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Astros-Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET) and Athletics-Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys are always aware of the sports betting calendar, more specifically the number of games on the board each day across all sports. When the daily schedule is light, sharps rejoice because they know all the games will be heavily bet because casual bettors have so few games to play.

Today is a perfect example. Because it’s a quiet Monday with only a handful of MLB games, no postseason NBA and only one Stanley Cup playoff game, the action-thirsty public is forced to load up on a small handful of baseball games. This leads to an increased contrarian edge for Goodfellas.

After analyzing Monday’s short 7-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:25 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 8 to 8.5)

The betting public is relatively split on this over/under, but sharps have taken a clear position.

This total opened at 8. Currently 56% of bets are taking the over, indicating a slight public lean. However, the over is also receiving a whopping 79% of dollars. This signals big wagers from pro bettors backing a high-scoring game.

We’ve also seen this line rise from 8 to 8.5. Typically, 56% of bets might move the juice a few cents toward the over, but it’s not lopsided enough to force a full half-run move. So we know this jump was caused by pro money, not Average Joe $5 bets.

We’ve also seen a plethora of smart money alerts on this over, with sharps crushing the Over 8 twice and the Over 8.5 twice. The fact that wiseguys kept hitting the over despite the line rising and getting worse indicates elevated pro confidence. 

One reason to love this over: the wind is blowing out to straightaway center at 7 to 10 mph, making it a match for one of our top Bet Labs weather systems (+85.59 units won since 2005).

Another added bonus: Paul Emmel is behind the plate. Since 2005, the under has lost -39.02 units with Emmel calling balls and strikes.

Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins

7:40 p.m. ET

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