Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, July 1.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Tuesday, I preview Tigers vs. Nationals, Reds vs. Red Sox, Guardians vs. Cubs and Astros vs. Rockies. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, July 1
Tigers vs. Nationals
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9.5 100o / -120u | -150 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9.5 100o / -120u | +125 |
Jack Flaherty vs. Trevor Williams
Are arm injuries catching up to Jack Flaherty?
Through the month of May, Flaherty has a 3.38 xFIP, 22% K-BB%, 99 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+ and 4.83 botERA.
Meanwhile, in the month of June, he has a 4.76 xFIP, 10.7% K-BB%, 97 Stuff+, 90 Pitching+ and 5.29 botERA.
It was evident that Flaherty wore down last season. In the first half of the campaign, he posted a 2.53 xFIP and 28% K-BB%. Meanwhile, in the second half, he had a 3.65 xFIP and 19% K-BB%.
The Tigers' high-usage bullpen could also be wearing down, too. Over the last 30 days, the Tigers' pen is 16th in xFIP and 21st in K-BB%. It posted the most innings pitched in the second half of the 2024 season, including 80 more than any other team in the MLB.
The Nationals' offense has been hot over the last two weeks, posting a 116 wRC+, which is eighth in the league.
The Tigers' offense has been even more hot in that span, as it's posted a 142 wRC+, which is second in the MLB.
Trevor Williams was lucky in 2024, and that has certainly turned around in 2025. He currently has a 5.65 ERA, 4.20 xERA, 4.4 xFIP, a high BABIP (.336 vs. .302 for his career) and a low strand rate (63% LOB% vs. 72.5% for his career).
He has a career-best botERA (3.25) compared to 3.89 last season, showing how unlucky the Nationals' pitcher truly has been.
Meanwhile, the Nationals' bullpen remains an uncomfortable sweat. The pen is last in the MLB (30th) in xFIP, K-BB%, Pitching+ and botERA in both 2025 and over the last 30 days.
Still, I'm projecting the Nationals at +116 and for this game to have 9.9 runs, thus creating value on both Washington ML and the over at -105.
Pick: Nationals ML to +126 | Over 9.5 to -105
Reds vs. Red Sox
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 10 -105o / -115u | -110 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 10 -105o / -115u | -110 |
Brady Singer vs. Richard Fitts
It'll be 87 degrees (and feel like 90), with 8-10 mph winds out to right field, in Boston on Tuesday. It'll be rainy and humid, creating nearly a 10% weather boost compared to an average day at Fenway Park.
The weather factors have increased my projected total from 9.65 to 10.45.
It's also triggered the "Wind 10 Out" system in Action Labs (54.1% win, 5.1% ROI). In fact, this system is 68-55-5 (56.1% win, +6.5% ROI) at Fenway Park.
Moving onto the pitchers, Brady Singer is scuffling, with a 4.71 xERA this season compared to a 4.65 xERA last season. However, his xFIP is up from 3.62 to 4.53, and his K-BB% is down from 15.2% to 10.9%.
The Reds are back in their better split vs. Richard Fitts, as they have a 102 wRC+ (15th) against righties compared to a 75 wRC+ (25th) vs. lefties.
Fitts has a good slider (106 Stuff+), but the results haven’t been there in a limited sample of 45 innings pitched. He has a career 4.92 xFIP and a 7.7% K-BB%, so his projected FIP range is 4.40-4.87. He projects as a No. 4-5 starting pitcher, but his stats have been replacement level.
Take the over.
Pick: Over 9.5 to 10 (-108)
Guardians vs. Cubs
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -105o / -115u | +145 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -105o / -115u | -175 |
Gavin Williams vs. Matthew Boyd
I prefer Matthew Boyd (3.44 xERA, 16.6% K-BB%, 98 Pitching+, 3.76 botERA) to Gavin Williams (4.35 xERA, 10% K-BB%, 94 Pitching+, 4.62 botERA).
I'm not the only one though, as FIP projections do, too (3.61-4.05 for Boyd, 3.97-4.2 for Williams)
Facing a southpaw puts the Guardians in their lesser split, as they have a 94 wRC+ against right-handers and a 75 wRC+ against left-handers. Over the last 30 days, they have a 68 wRC+ (28th) against lefties.
Meanwhile, the Cubs have been consistent, as they're fourth against right-handed pitchers on the season (118 wRC+) and third over the last 30 days (119 wRC+).
They grind down opposing bullpens over full series', but they have troubles with their own bullpen.
The Cubs' pen is 23rd in xFIP and 26th in K-BB%, including 20th and seventh, respectively, over the last 30 days.
The Guardians' bullpen is better, as it's 12th in xFIP and 10th in K-BB%. However, it's struggling lately, sitting 24th in xFIP and 26th in K-BB% over the last 30 days.
The Cubs also have a defensive edge based on being third in both Defensive Runs Saved (+45) and Outs Above Average (+45). In fact, they're No. 2 in my model behind the Blue Jays.
On the flip side, Cleveland is 12th in DRS (+17) and 16th in OAA (-2). It's still tied for 10th in my model, though.
Regardless, I'm projecting the Cubs at -189, so I'll bet them to -175 on the moneyline.
Pick: Cubs ML to -175
Astros vs. Rockies
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 11.5 100o / -120u | -175 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 11.5 100o / -120u | +145 |
Colton Gordon vs. Chase Dollander
We should continue to attack Astros moneylines and overs against left-handed pitchers. But we should also bet unders when they're facing right-handed pitchers.
The offensive splits are clear, as Houston has a 101 wRC+ (17th) against righties and a 120 wRC+ (third) against lefties. Over the last 30 days, it's more stark, with the Astros having a 100 wRC+ (20th) vs. right-handers and a 124 wRC+ (fourth) vs. left-handers.
If Yordan Alvarez (career 160 wRC+ vs. RHP, 166 vs. LHP) returns by the All-Star break, that should help Houston even out its splits.
But that won't happen here.
As for the Rockies, Chase Dollander showed a more significant home/road split early in the season. He has a 4.85 xFIP at Coors Field, while posting a 4.59 xFIP on the road. His K-BB% doubles, too (5.6% to 10.1%).
He has a plus-curve (120 Stuff+) and cutter (122) with elite fastball velocity (93rd percentile). He's struggling with command, but he's suppressing exit velocity (70th percentile) and hard-hit balls while owning an above-average ground-ball percentage (45%; 64 percentile).
On the flip side, Colton Gordon is an unheralded rookie who's been incredibly effective thus far (3.5 xERA, 3.46 xFIP, 19% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+, 3.02 botERA).
He has excellent command (2.9% BB%; 4.7% in Triple-A), with a 111 Location+ that should translate fine to Coors Field as long as he has feel for his slider (111 Stuff+).
The Rockies are awful against left-handed pitching (62 wRC+, 30th).
Meanwhile, Outs Above Average loves Houston (+20, 2nd), but Defensive Runs Saved views it as closer to average (+11, 18th).
I'm projecting 10.51 runs for this one, so bet the under from 11.5 to 11 (-110).
Pick: Under 11.5 (Play to 11 at -110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, July 1
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- Blue Jays moneyline (+145 to +130)
- Nationals moneyline (+136 to +126)
- Athletics moneyline (+145 to +135)
- Cubs moneyline (-162 to -175)
- Tigers vs. Nationals Over 9.5 (+105 to -105)
- Cardinals vs. Pirates Over 7 (-118) to -120 or 7.5 (+100)
- Athletics vs. Rays Over 8.5 (-118) to 9 (-110)
- Brewers vs. Mets Under 8.5 (-110) to -115
- Reds vs. Red Sox Over 9.5 (-120) to 10 (-108)
- Astros vs. Rockies Under 11.5 (-115) to 11 (-110)
