The Pittsburgh Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSMW.
Pittsburgh is a -160 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, as Paul Skenes takes the mound for the Pirates tonight, while St. Louis is +135 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 7 total runs.
Continue below for my Cardinals vs Pirates predictions and MLB picks, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction, Picks
- Cardinals vs Pirates pick: Pirates Moneyline (-160 | Play to -180)
My Pirates vs. Cardinals best bet is Pirates moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Pirates Odds for Tuesday, July 1
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 7 -110 / -110 | +135 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7 -110 / -110 | -160 |
- Cardinals vs Pirates run line: Pirates -1.5 (+140), Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
- Cardinals vs Pirates over/under: 7 total runs
- Cardinals vs Pirates moneyline: Pirates -160, Cardinals +135
- Cardinals vs Pirates moneyline:Ā Pirates ML (-160)
Cardinals vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Andre Pallante (STL) | Stat | RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 4-7 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 4.43 / 4.32 | ERA / xERA | 2.12 / 2.48 |
| 4.53 / 3.65 | FIP / xFIP | 2.50 / 3.13 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 0.91 |
| 8.3% | K-BB% | 19.8% |
| 64.1% | GB% | 48.5% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 103 | Location+ | 110 |
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
Andre Pallante has struggled to find his footing as a full-time starter this year. Through 16 starts, Pallante is 3-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor. Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the bottom third of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Pallante is an inconsistent bullpen. This season, St. Louisā relief corps ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA.
That leaves only the hitting, which is the Cardinalsā lone advantage in this matchup. However, that edge is nullified against Paul Skenes.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Through 97 combined plate appearances against Paul Skenes, the current St. Louis roster has a .215 xBA, .300 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and .247 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).
Not that any team has had much success through Skenesā first two professional seasons.
Across his first 40 big league starts, the former No. 1 overall draft pick is 15-10 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.
Heās already the betting favorite to win this yearās National League Cy Young Award, and his analytics suggest heāll remain in that position moving forward.
This season, Skenes ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and barrel rate. In this matchup specifically, he should have no trouble neutralizing the Cardinalsā offensive strength.
Through five career starts against St. Louis, Skenes owns a 2.76 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Not only do the Pirates possess the starting pitching edge, but they also boast the bullpen advantage.
Cardinals vs Pirates Best Bet
Pittsburghās relief corps outranks St. Louisā in both ERA and wins above replacement (WAR).
The question is whether the pitching gap between these two teams outweighs the hitting gap.
Considering the Cardinalsā poor track record against Skenes, it does.
Additionally, while PNC Park does not offer much of a home-field advantage in terms of environment, it still provides the Pirates with the benefit of batting last.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-160 | Play to -180)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Pirates moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Pittsburgh to cover, but find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, but I don't trust Pallante.
