MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Diamondbacks-Rangers, 2 Other Games
Arizona Diamondbacks infielders Nick Ahmed and Eduardo Escobar. Credit: Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports
- Sharps are betting three MLB games tonight, headlined by Diamondbacks-Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET).
- Wiseguys are also getting down on Rays-Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET) and Padres-Marlins (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys went 1-2 with their Monday plays, easily cashing the Dodgers-Phillies contrarian over but losing the White Sox-Royals over and Brewers moneyline. Overall it was a big night for contrarians, as underdogs went 7-4 on the moneyline (63.6%), winning +5.02 units ($100 bettor won $502).
>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Tampa Bay Rays (56-40) at New York Yankees (59-33)
7:05 p.m. ET | Ryne Stanek (0-2, 3.31 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (5-4, 4.03 ERA)
In case you missed it, New York features a modern day Murderers’ Row with more home run hitters than you can count. Couple that with the homer happy Yankee Stadium and that’s all the public needs to know. Hammer Yankees overs to the moon.
However, you have to remember that sportsbooks set lines with public bias and perception in mind. It doesn’t matter if they post a Yankees over at 9.5, 10 or 10.5. The public will take it regardless. As a result, books shade the totals to the over, giving fearless wiseguys additional value to buy low on an artificially inflated under.
This AL East showdown is a perfect example.
The over/under opened at 10 and, as you’d expect, 65% of bets are taking the over. However, the line has remained frozen at 10. This signals liability and smart money on the under.
The under also enjoys a massive smart money discrepancy, as only 35% of bets are backing the under, but it accounts for 69% of dollars.
We noticed wiseguys crush the Under 10, triggering steam across the market.
An added bonus for pros on the under: Phil Cuzzi is behind the plate. Since 2005, the Under has cashed at a 56% clip (+34.06 units) with Cuzzi calling balls and strikes.
The under also matches several Bet Labs historical systems:
- Good Teams High Total Under: When two teams with win percentages of .520 or higher face off and the total is 9.5 or higher and the under is getting 45% of less, the under has gone 524-405 (56.4%), winning +94.44 units with a 9.9% ROI.
- Bets Over, Money Under: When the under is getting 40% or less of bets but 55% or more dollars and the line remains frozen in a division game, the under has gone 102-67 (60.4%), winning +27.83 units with a 15.9% ROI.
Sharp angle: Under (stayed at 10)
San Diego Padres (45-48) at Miami Marlins (34-57)
7:10 p.m. ET | Logan Allen (2-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. Jordan Yamamoto (3-0, 1.24 ERA)
Normally the public would hammer short favorites like the Padres in this spot: better team, better record, deeper roster and lineup. However, Average Joes are victims of recency bias and they’re down on the Pads as of late. Why? Because San Diego just got swept by the Braves and is now just 3-8 over its last 11 games.
Throw in the fact that the Padres face a young stud with a sparkling ERA and casual bettors are salivating over the Marlins at home. Not the sharps, they’re buying low on San Diego to grab a much-needed win against an inferior opponent.
This game opened with San Diego listed as a -130 road favorite and Miami a +120 dog. Currently 65% of bets are backing the Marlins. This influx of Miami action forced bookmakers to adjust the line toward Miami (+120 to +106).
Fine by the sharps. They were happy to pounce on the Padres as rare contrarian favorites with deflated line value (-130 to -115).
This season, favorites that see their line get better (like the Padres), have gone 301-200 (60.1%), winning +18.72 units.
San Diego is receiving only 35% of bets but 49% of dollars, further evidence of big pro money in its favor.
Unpopular favorites receiving less than 50% of bets have gone 119-88 (57.5%) this season, winning +7.15 units. Non-division road favorites have been even better: 163-104 (61%), +16.42 units. San Diego fits both.
Sharp angle: Padres (buy-low deflated -115)
Arizona Diamondbacks (47-47) at Texas Rangers (50-44)
8:05 p.m. ET | Alex Young (2-0, 0.68 ERA) vs Lance Lynn (12-4, 3.69 ERA)
This Interleague showdown is flying somewhat under the radar with the betting public. But sharps have had this one circled from the get-go.
Both teams are riding two-game losing streaks, but the Rangers are at home, boast a better record and send the pitcher with the most wins in baseball to the hill. Gotta go with Texas in this one, right?
The Rangers opened as -164 favorites and the Diamondbacks as +151 dogs. However, despite 70% of bets taking Texas, the line has fallen away from the Rangers (-164 to -158) and toward the D-backs (+151 to +145).
Why would the bookmakers drop the Texas line and hand out a sweeter price to public bettors who are already betting them? Because the house got hit with a wave of smart money on the Snakes.
According to our Sports Insights Bet Signals, professional bettors hammered Arizona at +151 twice and again at +146, triggered three steam and reverse line moves at a trio of sportsbooks across the market.
We haven’t seen a single conflicting smart money alert on the Rangers, which means their support is purely public.
Sharps also see two unique edges on the D-backs. Texas’ bullpen is overtaxed lately (14.2 innings last three games), while the Snakes’ relievers are rested (7.2 innings last three games).
Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from +151 to +145)