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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mets-Braves, 2 Other Thursday Games

Credit:

Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) and left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13). Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Thursday, headlined by New York Mets-Atlanta Braves (7:20 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Pittsburgh Pirates-Chicago Cubs (7:35 p.m. ET) and Colorado Rockies-San Francisco Giants (9:45 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys suffered their first losing day of the week yesterday, going 1-2 with their Wednesdays plays. Baseball betting can drive you crazy if you overreact to the inevitable ups and downs of the long season. It’s all about mental toughness and focusing on the forest, not the trees.

After analyzing Wednesday’s short 10-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on two MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

7:20 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 8.5 to 9)

Casual bettors love overs. It’s just much more fun rooting for an action-packed, high-scoring game with home runs and runs scored. However, once in a while the public will load up on an under, providing wiseguys a rare contrarian over opportunity.

This NL East showdown is a perfect example.

The total opened at 8.5. With two low-ERA starters going head-to-head (Steven Matz 0.87 and Kevin Gausman 0.00), nearly 65% of bettors are taking the under. However, the total has risen from 8.5 to 9.

Why would the oddsmakers hand out an extra run to Average Joes who are already sweating the under? Follow the money.

The over is getting only 36% of bets but 69% of dollars, indicating heavy wiseguy money. Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we also tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the over (three at Over 8.5 and one at Over 9). We haven’t seen a single conflicting under move (or buyback).

An added bonus for over backers: Tim Timmons is calling balls and strikes. Since 2005, the under has lost -25.85 units with Timmons behind the plate.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

7:35 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 10.5 to 9)

The public is relatively split on this NL Central over/under. But wiseguys have taken a clear position.

The total opened at a sky-high 10.5. Currently 53% of bets are taking the under, but the under also accounts for 85% of dollars. This massive bets vs. dollars split signals a slight public lean but heavy wiseguy action.

We’ve also seen this total fall like a rock, dropping 1.5 runs to 9. What caused this movement?

Sharps steamed the under three separate times: Under 10.5, Under 10 and Under 9. The fact that they kept hitting it despite the line falling indicates supreme wiseguy confidence in a low-scoring game.

Tonight’s home plate umpire is Mike Estabrook. Since 2005, unders have won 56.9% of the time (+28.22 units) with Estabook behind the plate.

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

9:45 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Giants (moved from +106 to -101)

We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement in this one.

Both teams have putrid records (Colorado is 3-9 and San Francisco is 4-9). The public says the Rockies are a playoff team and have lost five straight, so they’re due for a win. But wiseguys aren’t falling victim to the Gambler’s Fallacy. They’re buying low on the home dog.

The Rockies opened as -115 road favorites. However, despite Colorado receiving 60% of bets, the line has moved away from the Rockies (-115 to -111) and toward San Francisco (+106 to -101).

The Giants are receiving only 40% of bets but 62% of dollars, further evidence of smart money in their favor.

We also tracked two steam moves on San Francisco, pushing them from a slight dog to a virtual pick’em.

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