Tuesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Athletics, Three Other Games
James Paxton and Mike Zunino. Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys have picked out four valuable betting opportunities for tonight's MLB slate.
- Sharps are getting down on two unders and one over.
- They're also banking on one bad team to win another game at home.
Football is in the air, but wiseguys aren’t giving up on baseball. The dog days of summer offer unique value to savvy bettors, especially when it comes to betting against good teams. Since 2005, divisional dogs receiving 40% or fewer bets with totals of 8 or higher have won +70.55 units with a +12.8% return on investment (ROI) when playing against elite teams (.590 win percentage or higher) in August and September. This is due to public bettors jumping on the bandwagons of winning teams, leading to overpriced lines and increased contrarian value.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:35 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. and 10:05 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 3:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
- Sharp angle: Over 8.5
- First pitch 7:35 p.m. ET
The Marlins and Braves played a doubleheader yesterday, with the over cashing in the first game and under cashing in the second. The public is leaning Over tonight, but not overwhelmingly. Currently 56% are going Over, but the juice has moved massively from 8.5 Under -118 to 8.5 Over -113. In a vacuum, relatively balanced action shouldn’t move the juice more than a few cents. So we know this juice movement was caused by sharp over action. Pros at YouWager, 5Dimes and The Greek all hammered the Over 8.5. An added bonus for Goodfellas on the Over: the wind is blowing out to straightaway center at about 5 mph.
Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros
- Sharp angle: Under 7
- First pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
Justin Verlander is coming off his worst start of the season, having lasted only two innings and giving up six runs against the Mariners. With the stacked Rockies lineup coming to town, the public likes the Over, especially since the total is so low. But wiseguys are zigging while the public zags. Currently 63% of bets are on the Over, but 52% of dollars are on the Under. Sharps at YouWager and The Greek both hit the Under 7.5, triggering a pair of reverse line moves that dropped the total down to 7. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed, another benefit for Under backers.
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
- Sharp angle: Kansas City +120
- First pitch 8:15 p.m. ET
The Royals came up huge for contrarian wiseguys last night, beating Toronto, 3-1, as a +119 dog behind only 34% of bets. Still, the Royals have the second-worst record in baseball (36-82), and the public says there’s no way they can win two in a row. But sharps aren’t buying the Gambler’s Fallacy. Kansas City is getting only 17% of bets, making the Royals the most lopsided play of the night. However, they’re not just contrarian. They’re getting more money (27%) and have moved from +125 to +120, signaling sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Pros at BetUS hammered KC +125, and the Royals also fit the profitable Bet Labs system: Bad Team After Win (+166.62 units since 2005).
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Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
- Sharp angle: Under 7.5
- First pitch 10:05 p.m. ET
The A’s won, 7-6, last night, with the Over cashing easily for the public (68% took Over 8). Despite tonight’s stellar pitching matchup between James Paxton (3.63 ERA) and Mike Fiers (3.40 ERA), the public sees a low total and is going back to the Over well. Not the sharps. The Under is getting only 33% of bets but it accounts for 53% of dollars, indicating smart money on a low-scoring game . Pros at GTBets and Heritage both got down hard on the Under 7.5, triggering a pair of reverse line moves. James Hoye is behind the plate, a profitable Under ump since 2005 (+14.37 units), and the Under also matches the profitable Bet Labs system: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+173.95 units since 2005).
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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