MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Yankees vs. Red Sox, Indians vs. Royals

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Yankees vs. Red Sox, Indians vs. Royals article feature image

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Indians center fielder Oscar Mercado (35) and shortstop Francisco Lindor (12).

  • Wiseguys are betting a pair of MLB games on Thursday night, headlined by Yankees-Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Indians-Royals (8:15 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys got back to their winning ways on Wednesday, cashing the Yankees moneyline and Royals-Braves under en route to a 2-1 day. Sharps nearly swept the board, but the Padres scored a meaningless run in the ninth to win, 7-2, and kill the Under 8.5.

Overall, it was an epic day for sportsbooks and contrarian bettors as unders went an absurd 13-3, profiting nearly 10 units. The public was on the over in 14 of those 16 games.

⚾️ Wednesday Results

➡️ Favorites: 11-5, +3.28u
➡️ Non-divisional road teams: 8-3, +6.36u
➡️ Unders: 13-3, +9.29u

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 25, 2019

After analyzing Thursday’s short nine-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a pair of MLB games.

>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

New York Yankees (66-35) at Boston Red Sox (56-47)

7:10 p.m. ET | Masahiro Tanaka (7-5, 4.00 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (8-7, 5.61 ERA) 

The greatest rivalry in sports renews tonight at Fenway Park. With a short slate to begin with, this Yankees vs. Red Sox showdown will be the marquee game of the night by far. And, of course, Pros and Joes will be sweating opposite sides.

New York has a 10-game advantage over Boston in the win column, an edge in the starting pitcher department and sits at a juicy low-favorite price. Yankees all day, right?

This game opened with the Bronx Bombers listed as -128 road favorites and the Sox +118 dogs. However, despite nearly 70% of bets backing the Yanks, the line has fallen away from New York (-128 to -119) and toward Boston (+118 to +109).

This is a classic case of sharp reverse line movement, with wiseguys getting down hard on the Sox. The influx of smart Boston money created big liability for the house, forcing bookmakers to adjust the line in favor of the home team despite the lopsided Yankee betting.

We’ve tracked three steam and reverse line moves on Boston coming at +119, +112 and +107 across the market. We haven’t seen a single conflicting Yankee move (or buyback), which means their support is almost entirely public.

The Sox are also in a prime contrarian spot, as they’re receiving only 31% of bets in the most heavily bet game of the night. When betting against the public, you always want to focus on the games garnering the most public action.

Boston is also a divisional dog with a high total (11), a profitable spot since 2005. Divisional dogs bark louder due familiarity (play each other 19 times per year) and high totals benefit dogs as more expected runs lead to variance and levels the playing field.

According to our Bet Labs software, short home divisional dogs (+105 to +115) with reverse line movement have gone 289-277 (51.1%), winning +39.23 units (6.9% ROI) since 2005.

Even better, divisional dogs receiving less than 35% of bets with at least five cents of RLM have gone 1,171-1.484 (44.1%), winning a whopping +117.54 units since 2005.

Sharp angle: Red Sox (moved from +118 to +109)

Cleveland Indians (59-42) at Kansas City Royals (39-64) 

8:15 p.m. ET | Adam Plutko (3-2, 4.81 ERA) vs. Mike Montgomery (1-3, 7.15 ERA) 

The public doesn’t know which way to go with this AL Central over/under. But professional bettors have taken a clear side.

This total opened at 10.5. After unders nearly swept the board yesterday, recency-biased public bettors got down early on the under. This influx of public action dropped the total down to 10.

Once the hook was erased, sharps made their move on the artificially deflated over 10.

The betting percentages have evened out since the morning, with tickets now split 50/50. However, we’ve tracked a whopping 91% of dollars on the over, a clear indication that big wagers are banking on a higher-scoring game.

We’ve also tracked a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the Over, without a single conflicting over move.

Aside from buying low on an over with Montgomery’s 7.15 ERA on the mound, wiseguys also see an edge with the weather.

The wind will be blowing out to left center at 6-9 mph, hopefully turning a warning track fly ball into a first-row homer.

Since 2005, when the wind is blowing out to left at 6 mph or more, the over has gone 135-97 (58.2%), winning +32.10 units with a 13.5% ROI.

Sharp angle: Over (10)

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