MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nats vs. D-backs, 2 Other Saturday Games
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Strasburg
- Sharps are making moves on three of Saturday night's MLB matchups.
- Sports Insights' Bet Signals help reveal the plays that the pros are making on Mets-Pirates, Sox-Yankees and Nats-D-backs.
A Red Sox-Yankees double-header in the Bronx has presented bettors with a rare 16-game MLB slate from which to choose on Saturday.
Sharps have certainly taken notice, as they’ve caused some interesting line moves in three of tonight’s matchups, including the second game of that Sox-Yanks day-nighter.
>> All odds as of 12: 45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05 p.m. ET | Marcus Stroman (6-11, 2.96 ERA) vs. Chris Archer (3-8, 5.58 ERA)
Making his first start in a Mets uniform, Marcus Stroman and his sub-3 ERA have attracted 75% of bettors tonight in Pittsburgh — understandable given the relative short opening line of -132.
Despite that backing, though, oddsmakers have since dropped the Mets’ price to -124, a sign that the bettors they’re really concerned with — sharps — are among the minority.
Sports Insights Bet Signals help confirm that professional action is accounting for the line move, as they’ve been triggered twice on Pittsburgh at lines of +123 and +120.
The Pirates are now down to +114.
Sharp angle: Pirates (moved from +122 to +114)
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (Game 2)
7:05 p.m. ET | Brian Johnson (1-1, 6.43 ERA) vs. Chad Green (2-3, 5.06 ERA)
A double-digit combined ERA is generally not the greatest indicator of a low-scoring game, so it shouldn’t come as any surprise to see 72% of bets landing on the over in tonight’s Sox-Yankees Game 2. Just as was the case in for the Mets and Pirates, though, the line movement on the total hasn’t matched the betting percentages.
Despite the over’s popularity, the total has dropped from its opener of 11.5 down to 11, and once again, SI Bet Signals have identified two occurrences of pro money adjusting the market.
Sharps hit the under 11.5 at -115 and -133 before oddsmakers were convinced to drop the total.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 11.5 to 11)
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
8:10 p.m. ET | Stephen Strasburg (14-4, 3.26 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (9-7, 3.91 ERA)
Currently holding onto an NL Wild Card spot, the Nats are for the most part back to being a public favorite on a near-nightly basis. With Stephen Strasburg on the hill, tonight has proven to be no different. Seventy percent of bettors are backing the Nationals, who opened as -155 favorites.
You can probably guess where this is going by now — Washington is no longer listed at -155. In fact, they’re quite a bit cheaper thanks to the sharp action that’s come down on the home side.
The D-backs have generated three SI Bet Signals (+135 twice, and +127) to bring the Nats’ line all the way down to -131. Arizona has in turn fallen from +143 to +121, a 41.2% to 45.5% jump in implied probability.
Sharp angle: D-backs (moved from +143 to +121)