Tuesday MLB Forecast: Expect Excellent Hitting Conditions

Tuesday MLB Forecast: Expect Excellent Hitting Conditions article feature image
Credit:

Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Senzel.

  • It's starting to feel like summer, and warm and windy weather should play a role in several games tonight.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we look at how weather could impact Pirates-Reds (6:40 p.m. ET), Cardinals-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET) and Tigers-Orioles. (7:05 p.m. ET)

The holiday weekend is over and summer is here! Maybe not technically, but if tonight’s weather forecast is any indication, it’s well on its way.

Though the weather is back to being crappy in my neck of the woods (Boston), there are some excellent conditions for offense in the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio. Apparently Ohio is technically considered the Midwest, but anyone with eyes can see that it’s closer to the Atlantic than it is the western half of the country.

Pirates (Jordan Lyles) at Reds (Lucas Sims)

Temp: 84 degree
Wind: 10 mph to left
Weather Rating: 83

With eight years of mediocrity under his belt, Jordan Lyles is having the best year of his career. Despite more than 800 innings of 5+ ERA ball, Lyles is managing a sub-3 ERA thanks to a much higher strikeout rate, left-on-base percentage and HR/FB%.

Though the Reds’ offense has been a bit disappointing this year with just 4.37 runs per game, Cincy has scored 50 runs over its past eight games. I sense regression is coming for Lyles and tonight is the perfect spot for it.

On the other side, the Reds are trotting out Lucas Sims for his first major league appearance of the season. The former Brave has posted great strikeout numbers in the minors this year, but has struggled in his stints in the show — especially when it comes to walks and home runs.

With a Weather Rating of 84, this is the best hitting weather of the season outside of Coors Field and Globe Life Park in Arlington. In fact, there have been just 15 games since 2014 outside of those two stadiums with Weather Ratings of 84+.

Here’s how they’ve fared:

  • 21 runs: over the total
  • 8: under
  • 13: over
  • 13: over
  • 15: over
  • 8: under
  • 12: over
  • 5: under
  • 27: over
  • 15: over
  • 7: under
  • 11: over
  • 7: under
  • 7: under
  • 16: over

Overs have gone 9-6 in such situations and more than 12 runs per game have been scored, on average. This total opened at 9.5 this morning, but was there for only about 10 minutes before moving to 10.

Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) at Phillies (Nick Pivetta)

Temp: 79 degrees
Wind: 8 mph to right
Weather Rating: 74

If we head west to Philly, the Weather Rating is also quite high. Not elite, but darn good. The only caveat with this game is that there’s a chance of a rainout thanks to showers in the vicinity most of the evening.

The last thing Cardinals management wants to see is bad weather for Waino’s start. The 37-year-old Adam Wainwright is clearly on his last legs and has had big troubles with walks and home runs this year — the latter of which has never been an issue in his career.

Despite being a ground-ball pitcher, Wainwright has a very high 17.4% HR/FB%, but I suppose that can happen when you can’t crack 90 mph.

Nick Pivetta made four starts earlier in the year, but was so awful that he was demoted to AAA. After posting solid numbers down on the farm, he’s back and will be looking to improve on his 8.35 ERA. Yes, you read that correctly.

This over/under also opened up at 9.5, but is up to 10 and even 10.5 in some spots.

Tigers (Matthew Boyd) at Orioles (Dylan Bundy)

Temp: 85
Wind: 8 mph to right
Weather Rating: 81

For his second consecutive start, Dylan Bundy is going to have to deal with unfavorable conditions at Camden Yards. Last go-round against the Yankees, he was decent, allowing three runs over 5.2 innings. Alas, the two teams’ bullpens had some late inning woes and the game went over the total.

We all know Bundy has his troubles with the long ball and the Tigers may need to take advantage of that weakness for this game to go over. I say that because the Orioles have to face Matthew Boyd, who is having easily the best season of his career. Thanks to a K/BB ratio of 5.71, Boyd has an ERA a shade over 3 and his FIP suggests he should even be a little better.

Though he’s a fly-ball pitcher, Boyd has dropped his HR/9 below 1.00 because of his improved strikeout rate. Less batted balls = less fly balls = less home runs. It’s first grade, Spongebob.

If neither team can get to tonight’s starters, their bullpens can both give up runs in droves. Baltimore’s 5.99 bullpen ERA ranks 29th in the league, while Detroit’s 5.46 bullpen ERA ranks 28th. Their HR/9s of 1.91 and 1.90 rank 30th and 29th, respectively.

This over/under opened at 9 and surprisingly fell to 8.5 for a little while, but is back up to the opening number.