MLB Monday Weather: Wind Impacting Brewers-Phillies, Astros-Tigers

MLB Monday Weather: Wind Impacting Brewers-Phillies, Astros-Tigers article feature image
Credit:

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matthew Boyd.

  • Winds are impacting two of tonight's seven MLB games, including Brewers-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET) and Astros-Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET).

We have a very small slate on Monday, with just seven baseball games to be played. Combine that with just one hockey game and no basketball games and you can see why we suggest getting ahead on your PGA Championship research.

Weather shouldn’t play a massive impact on the slate, but two ballparks in particular are being impacted by wind — one innie, one outie.

Brewers (Freddy Peralta) at Phillies (Aaron Nola)

7:05 p.m. ET
Over/under: 8 (o-120)

The weather in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast looks pretty crappy this week, as has generally been the case all season. As a resident of the region, I can tell you that about 90% of the days over the past two months have been windy, rainy or both.

Philadelphia will deal with both elements today, as rain will fall during the day and leave behind some showers at night. The wind won’t be blowing fiercely, but it will be blowing straight in.

Historically, the under has hit at a 54.5% rate when the wind blows straight in and a 59.1% rate when that wind is accompanied by a temperature of 60 degrees or less per Bet Labs.

While Aaron Nola has a career average of about 1.7 grounders for every fly ball hit off him, Freddy Peralta is a fly-ball pitcher. He’ll need all the help from the wind he can get in this small ballpark, though his high walk rate could get him in trouble regardless of the weather.

This over/under opened at 8 (o-120) this morning and can be found at that number or 8.5 (u-115).

Houston Astros (Brad Peacock) at Detroit Tigers (Matthew Boyd)

7:10 p.m. ET
Over/under: 8.5 (o-120)

The weather vane is flipped 180 degrees in Detroit, where the Tigers will host the ‘Stros.

Wind-out overs haven’t been as strong of a play as wind-in unders on their own, cashing at just a 51.5% rate historically. However, Comerica Park has been one of the better ballparks for windy overs, going 99-77-11 (56.3%) since 2005.

Helping the over’s case is the fact that both starters, Brad Peacock and Matt Boyd, allow more fly balls than ground balls. Wind ain’t gonna help grounders leave the yard, is it?

Last year, Boyd’s ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio of 0.58 was .01 above Justin Verlander’s league-leading mark and led to a lot of home runs, but he’s gotten that ratio much closer to 1.00 and reduced his home runs a fair bit this year.

As far as batters go, the Tigers have the third-highest fly-ball rate this season with the Astros coming in at 10th. Houston shouldn’t need too much help from the wind to get balls over the fence, as its HR/FB rate ranks second best in the majors. Meanwhile, the weak Tigers will definitely need help, as their HR/FB rate ranks second worst in the majors and is less than half of Houston’s.

After opening at 8.5 yesterday, the total dropped down to 8 this morning. However, some sharp activity on the over has since brought it back up to its opener and with heavy juice on the over, we could see this rise to 9 before first pitch.