MLB Friday Forecast: Wide Variety of Conditions Across the Slate

MLB Friday Forecast: Wide Variety of Conditions Across the Slate article feature image

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Progressive Field.

  • After a week of mostly poor hitting conditions, Friday offers several above-average games in addition to some very poor hitting weather in Chicago.
  • Rain could be an issue up and down the eastern seaboard, as several games in the mid-Atlantic could be impacted by an inclement weather system.

We have ourselves a full-blown mixed bag on our hands. The weather has been largely pitcher-friendly this week with the exception of the games in Texas, but today has a bit of everything. Rain, cold, heat, wind, and the return of Coors Field!

Highest Weather Ratings

  • Diamondbacks at Rockies: 73
  • Blue Jays at Rangers: 63
  • Braves at Marlins: 56 (if roof is open)
  • Giants at Reds: 53

Weather Ratings are a proprietary number created by FantasyLabs, which are on a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the best hitting atmosphere and 0 being the best pitching atmosphere. Weather Rating takes into account temperature, wind speed, wind direction, stadium elevation, humidity and atmospheric pressure. 

That’s right, Coors is back. We have middling conditions for Denver, with temperatures in the upper 60s and a breeze blowing in from right. Nothing that’s going to stop them from putting up runs, as the over/under of 11 is still the highest of the day by 1.5 runs.

Texas isn’t quite it’s usual self, but still holds the second-highest rating of the day. Winds will be blowing in from left, which is actually a rarity for Arlington. This will be the 51st time at Globe Life Park that we’ve recorded winds coming in from left, with the over having gone 28-20-2 so far.

I expect the roof to close in Miami as it often does, but even so, there are still a handful of games within a couple of points of 50 in either direction. Not too shabby for May 3rd, especially considering there were zero games with a Weather Rating above 50 a few days ago.

Lowest Weather Ratings

  • Red Sox at White Sox: 14
  • Cardinals at Cubs: 19
  • Mariners at Indians: 19

Chicago is giving us the double dose of crappy weather, and although the Cubs game will get more attention, the south side will technically feature slightly worse hitting conditions tonight.

Chris Sale returns home to face his old team, while Boston will go up against Reynaldo Lopez, who lowered his ERA from 7.46 to 6.03 with a 6-inning, 0 ER, 14-strikeout performance against the Tigers last time out. More than 80% of the early bets are on over 8.

The over/under at Wrigley opened up at a heavily-juiced 7.5 this morning before falling to 7. However, to my surprise, it has moved back to 7.5. The temperature will be right around 50 degrees, but of course, the big thing we have to pay attention to is the wind — it will be blowing straight in at 10 mph throughout the game.

Historically, the under has gone 100-70-12 (58.8%) with the wind blowing in at Wrigley per Bet Labs. The wind will also be blowing in in Cleveland for the Mariners-Indians game, where the over/under has actually risen from 8 to 8.5.

Inclement Weather

  • Nats at Phillies: Scattered showers/thunderstorms in the Philly area all night.
  • Twins at Yankees: New York has a higher chance of rain than Philly, especially after 9 p.m. ET, but less of a chance of thunder and lightning. Perhaps they play the end of the game in some showers.
  • Rays at Orioles: Essentially the same forecast as nearby Philadelphia, with some storms that could roll through all night.
  • Athletics at Pirates: Potentially the worst weather of the night, as storms are expected to be over the ballpark right around game time. They should clear out to the east and allow for a game, even if it is delayed to start
  • Blue Jays at Rangers: Strong storms with heavy rain will be in the area throughout the day — there’s even a flash flood watch. Might rival Pittsburgh for highest chance of a postponement.