MLB Weather: Mother Nature Kicking it Up a Notch in Chicago

MLB Weather: Mother Nature Kicking it Up a Notch in Chicago article feature image
Credit:

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras and Kris Bryant.

  • It's going to be cold and even windier in Chicago than it was last night, when the Marlins and Cubs ended up going over the total by 4 runs despite poor hitting conditions.
  • Two similarly poor-weather games will be played in Detroit and Cleveland, but betting activity on their respective over/unders has been the exact opposite.
  • The only game with above-average hitting conditions is in Colorado for the Giants-Rockies game, but there is also a chance of storms throughout the game.

Last night in Chicago, the Marlins beat the Cubs thanks to a 3-run ninth inning and cashed out some hefty tickets in the +230 range as a result. What you may not have realized, though, is that both teams actually combined to beat Mother Nature, going over her total by four runs. I suppose it was the oddsmakers’ over/under, but regardless, she doesn’t like that one bit.

As far as I’m concerned, Mother Nature is right up there with God, Jesus, Moses, etc. (I’m not very educated when it comes to religion). She certainly doesn’t roll over, though, and she’s decided to take a page out of Emeril Lagasse’s book … bam!


Highest Weather Ratings (Excluding closed roofs)

  • Giants at Rockies: 73
  • Phillies at Cardinals: 46

Weather Ratings are a proprietary number created by FantasyLabs, which are on a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the best hitting atmosphere and 0 being the best pitching atmosphere. Weather Rating takes into account temperature, wind speed, wind direction, stadium elevation, humidity and atmospheric pressure. 

After a lengthy, one-day hiatus, baseball is back at Coors. The weather will be quite nice for hitting a baseball, but pretty crappy for being a human in attendance. Temps will reach just the lower 50s with a breeze blowing in from right and a chance of rain. If this were any other park, we’d probably see a Weather Rating down in the 20s. But this is Coors, so the total of 10.5 is the highest of the day. Take your crappy weather and shove it, the oddsmakers say!

Meanwhile, St. Louis is offering close to average conditions, which are clearly pretty darn good for this time of year. This over is actually very popular, too, as more than 80% of bets and dollars have driven it up from 8.5 to 9 since opening.

Lowest Weather Ratings

  • Marlins at Cubs: 10
  • Angels at Tigers: 13
  • White Sox at Indians: 15

Last night, the Marlins and Cubs decided to tell Mother Nature to pound sand. Though the wind was blowing in and the thermometer read only 46 degrees, they scored 11 runs to go over the total of 7.

Tonight, Ma Nature is turning it up a notch. While the temp will be essentially the same, the wind will be blowing in at about 12 mph compared to 8-9 mph last night. With the wind cranked up, the oddsmakers have cranked down the total to just a mere 6.5 — the 15th time this season that there’s been a sub-7 total. The under is 9-5 so far in these situations, including in last night’s Mets-Padres game that closed at 6.

The Weather Rating is just a couple of ticks higher in Detroit, but the over/under is up at 9. Promising rookie Griffin Canning of the Angels will take on Daniel Norris and sharp bettors definitely seem to like the over regardless of the conditions, as the over is getting 25% more money than bets.

We have a pretty similar deal in Cleveland as far as the weather goes, but quite the opposite situation when it comes to betting activity. The under is getting just 21% of bets, but half the money. As a result, the total has dropped from 9 to 8.5 since opening.

Inclement Weather

  • Mariners at Yankees: Chance of rain throughout the game, with a higher chance of delay in the later innings. A line of rain will actually be coming in from the northwest, but once it comes through it shouldn’t last especially long.
  • Phillies at Cardinals: Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm throughout.
  • Marlins at Cubs: Some heavy rain arrives after midnight, but anything that falls during the game shouldn’t be too bad.
  • Giants at Rockies: About a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the game will make rostering DFS options at this enticing ballpark a somewhat risky choice.