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Monday’s MLB Over/Under: Jake Arrieta Meets Zack Godley in The Desert


Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jake Arrieta (49).

Betting odds: Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over/Under: 8.5
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Jake Arrieta (9-6, 3.32 ERA) vs. Zack Godley (12-6, 4.46 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 73-47-3, +20.9 units
Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Dodgers Under 7.5, Cole vs. Buehler (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

>> Follow Matt Zylbert in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets during the season.

I love pulling off a weekend sweep, which is exactly what I was able to do after nailing yesterday’s stressful Astros-Dodgers Under 7.5 bet. It’s on to a new week now, though, beginning tonight in the desert.

For the third time in his four-year career, Zack Godley compiled 10 strikeouts in a start during his last assignment, a dominant seven-inning performance that saw the former 10th-round draft pick yield only three base runners and hold a powerful Rangers lineup scoreless. It also propelled Godley to 12-6 on the season, easily a career-best for the Arizona right-hander.

This particular outing came at Chase Field, where Godley has been much superior compared to his work away from home. In fact, his ERA at home (3.43) is more than a full two runs better than on the road (5.46).

He’s also issued fewer walks and homers in his home digs, indicating that Godley is feeling an extra sense of comfort when toeing the rubber in Arizona.

Fortunately, that’s where he’ll be this evening as well in a spot where we may be catching him on a continued upswing.

Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zack Godley (52) throws a pitch to Miami Marlins first baseman Justin Bour (41).

His counterpart, Jake Arrieta, is typically more comfortable in his own home ballpark as well. Although he is on the road tonight, he still may feel a little snug given the familiarity he has with some of the opposing hitters in this one.

Several of the Diamondbacks’ most important hitters after all — Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Jon Jay and Daniel Descalso, to be specific — are a combined 11-for-62 (.177) with a single home run in their careers versus Arrieta.

Perhaps above all, Arrieta should be feeling good because he’s been cruising as of late. Following an inauspicious beginning to his second half, the former NL Cy Young Award winner has fired off consecutive quality starts, including a dazzling seven-inning, one-run performance at Boston his last time out.

If he’s in a rhythm and in a pennant race, like he is now, we can expect the 32-year-old to be consistent in these important turns on the hill.

One standout showing may all we need to ring in this under. As a result, it’s a solid bet with the line sitting at 8.5.

Play: Under 8.5 (-110)

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