MLB Prop Picks & Odds for Monday: How to Bet Walker Buehler & Rich Hill
Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: Walker Buehler.
- Tanner McGrath uses the Action Labs Player Prop tool to break down his favorite MLB props for Monday.
- He's eying two strikeout totals for veteran pitchers Walker Buehler and Rich Hill.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
Happy Memorial Day, readers.
The Action Network’s MLB player props team has found two pitching props with value today, so you can cash in on this market while on vacation.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Rich Hill Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175)
|Orioles vs. Red Sox||Red Sox -160|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
I’m amazed by Rich Hill. He’s a 42-year-old who continues to pitch quality innings for a Major League team.
But, he is not the strikeout machine he once was.
He hasn’t posted a K/9 over 10 since 2019 with the Dodgers. This season, that number is all the way down at 6.17, as his Whiff Rate ranks in the sixth percentile of qualified pitchers.
Hill has a plus curveball, but the primary goal is to keep exit velocities down. As many pitchers do as they age, Hill has become a pitch-to-contact guy. His stuff won’t blow by batters anymore, but he can be effective at getting outs.
As a result, Hill has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts just once in his eight starts this season — that’s good for a 13% hit rate that would imply -700 odds to the under.
The Baltimore lineup is nothing to write home about, but FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections have Hill recording just 2.9 strikeouts on Monday afternoon.
Based on everything mentioned above, the under is worth a bet.
Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175)
Walker Buehler Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Pirates vs. Dodgers||Dodgers -335|
|First Pitch||10:10 p.m. ET|
There’s nothing wrong with Walker Buehler, as he’s still pitching quality start after quality start, and the Dodgers are 7-2 in his starts this season.
However, his ability to miss bats is lagging. Buehler’s Whiff Rate is way down year over year, and his Strikeout Rate is down almost seven percent as a result (from 26% in 2021 to 19.1% in 2022).
For example, Buehler has cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in just two of his nine starts so far this season.
I think it’s because his Spin Rate is down. Buehler relies on a three-pitch mix, but he can throw six different pitches at hitters. However, the problem is that his spin rate on every single pitch is down.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
Buehler can continue to create outs through a pitch-to-contact approach. But the books are still pricing him as a strikeout machine, and we have to fade Buehler at this number.
Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (-110)