Monday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brewers-Marlins and Cubs-Giants
JT Riddle. Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
With the World Cup off today and no WNBA or CFL games on the board, all eyes will be on baseball tonight. Public players are focusing on two doubleheaders today (Yankees/Orioles and Phillies/Mets), but wiseguys are quietly eyeing a pair of under-the-radar matchups in Miami and San Francisco.
After analyzing Monday’s 13-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 and 10:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Moves: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, a top smart money indicator
Data as of 3:30 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins (+123)
7:10 p.m. ET
The first-place Brewers are 54-36. The last place Marlins are 37-55. Sounds like a guaranteed lock that Milwaukee will win tonight, right? Not so fast. Miami is getting only 32% of bets but 59% of dollars and the Marlins have fallen from +145 to +123. This bet vs dollars discrepancy and reverse line movement is clear evidence that wiseguys are taking a shot on the home dog.
Miami also fits two profitable Bet Labs systems: Bad Team After Win (+175.79 units since 2005) and New Series, All Signs Point to the Opponent (+187.41 units since 2005).
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants (-121)
10:15 p.m. ET
The public can't decide upon whom to bet on in this late-game showdown, but sharp bettors have taken a clear side. The Giants are getting only of 48% of bets, but it accounts for 86% of dollars, signaling massive smart money on San Francisco. Meanwhile, the Giants have moved from +110 to -121 since opening. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't budge more than a cent or two if the bets are split, so this massive line movement toward SF is a clear indication that sharps are coming down hard on the Giants.
Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out The Action Network MLB betting trends page.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.
For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights.
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