NL Wild Card Game Betting Odds: Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals
Probable starters: Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA)
- Brewers odds: +160
- Nationals odds: -170
- Over/Under: 7.5
- Date: Tuesday, October 1
- First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET on TBS
Odds as Sunday evening. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How They Got Here
The Brewers played at a 96-win pace in the second half, going 42-29, but they were below .500 (37-40) from June through August.
Milwaukee closed with a 20-7 record September, even after losing Christian Yelich to a season-ending injury, and stayed in the NL Central race with the Cardinals until the final day of the season.
The Nationals won 92 games overall and played at a 101-win pace in the second half, after posting a 24-33 record through May. They couldn't afford the slow start in the NL East race, as the division-champion Braves won 97 games.
The Nationals own a significantly higher run differential on the season than the Brewers (+149 to +3), but Milwaukee won the season series 4-2.
The Nationals will have home-field advantage in this one-game playoff, and they went 50-31 in home games this season. Meanwhile, the Brewers went 40-41 in road contests.
Pitching Matchup
Max Scherzer is the known commodity, coming off of another dominant season where he quietly posted the best fielding independent pitching metrics of his career. Ho-hum.
Mad Max averages more than six innings per start, but the Nationals have made it clear that both Patrick Corbin and potential NL Cy Young frontrunner Stephen Strasburg will each be available in relief.
The Brewers will use breakout arm Brandon Woodruff (3.01 FIP) to open the game, but expect a quick hook.
He was sidelined from late July through mid-September with an oblique strain and has only thrown four combined innings over two starts since returning from injury.
Jordan Lyles, Drew Pomeranz, Brent Suter and Jimmy Nelson are each candidates for work in the middle innings, and you should pencil in elite closer Josh Hader (138 strikeouts in 75.2 innings pitched) for a couple of frames.
Trends to Know
Favorites are 9-5 (64.3%) straight up in Wild Card Games, while home teams are 8-6 (57.1%). The over/under is split down the middle, 7-7.
The Nationals are 7-12 in postseason games dating back to 2012, including a 3-8 record at home.
The Brewers are 12-13 in postseason play dating back to 2008, with a 3-8 record on the road.
