For Monday, June 16, I'm on four MLB home run props: Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson, Yainer Diaz and Julio Rodriguez.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, June 16
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for June 16
Aaron Judge (+400)
vs Angels (SP: RHP Jose Soriano)
This is strictly a price play, as there is virtually no matchup in which Judge should be priced at +400. He gets a matchup vs. Jose Soriano, who is a big ground-ball pitcher and a negative matchup for righty power. Soriano has a 66.5% ground-ball rate on the season, and while that is a massive downgrade for Judge, Judge is still the best home run hitter in the league.
Also, the Angels' bullpen is one of the worst in the league this season and has allowed the most homers thus far. I have the true odds here nearly 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Gunnar Henderson (+360)
at Rays (SP: RHP Ryan Pepiot)
Henderson has been a little cold lately, but this spot is too good to pass up. Opposing pitcher Ryan Pepiot is a big plus matchup for power, and while I prefer targeting righties against Pepiot, he is still a plus matchup for lefties, giving up a 1.26 HR/9 in his career and a 42.9% fly-ball rate.
This ballpark is great for lefty power, and with temperatures expected to be in the mid-80s with high humidity, the ball should be flying. I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
Julio Rodriguez (+525)
vs Red Sox (SP: RHP Lucas Giolito
Opposing pitcher Lucas Giolito has been pretty good this season, but has still been a plus matchup for righty power, and I'm expecting a bit of regression. Giolito owns a high 1.62 HR/9 in his career to righties, compared to 1.33 this season. The hard contact allowed to righties has been massive this season (40%), and Rodriguez is a much better power bat than he's shown this season.
Rodriguez's hard-contact numbers have been good, but the HR/FB rate has been the lowest of his career. Considering the matchup, I have the true odds here around 75 points lower, making this a great bet.
Yainer Diaz (+450)
at Athletics (SP: LHP JP Sears)
Diaz isn't a huge power guy, but he's got some decent pop (9 homers this season), and the spot is fantastic. Opposing pitcher JP Sears has been absolutely hammered by righty power this season, giving up a high 1.85 HR/9 to go along with high fly-ball numbers. This ballpark is a big plus for power, and with the temperatures expected to be in the low-80s and wind blowing out heavily to left field, the ball should be flying.
I have the true odds here about 80 points lower, making this a great bet.
