The baseball slate for Monday, June 16 is a bit limited with just seven games, but there's still value to be found.
Our MLB betting experts have already sifted through the latest MLB odds and have found today's MLB best bets.
So, before placing your bets, be sure to continue reading for their MLB predictions, which include a total and a trio of prop picks.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 6:45 p.m. | |
| 6:45 p.m. | |
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kyle Murray's Phillies vs Marlins Best Bet: Fade Alcantara?
By Kyle Murray
Sandy Alcantara has had some struggles this season after returning from his year-and-a-half long absence, and although he has looked good in his past two starts, I think we have to keep in mind that those matchups were against the Pirates and the Rockies.
He'll face the Phillies today, who have a bit of an inflated reputation for strikeout purposes, but the projected lineup having a 21.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching doesn't necessarily tell the full story, as five of the first seven hitters have a strikeout rate below 20%. This is important because there is a good chance Alcantara doesn't see the guys at the bottom of the lineup as many times as he'll face the guys at the top. Also, Alcantara has five or more strikeouts in just four of his 13 starts this season.
Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
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Bet Labs' Rockies vs Nationals Best Bet: Trust the System
By Bet Labs
We're going to trust the data and back a system play here.
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in betting MLB totals. It focuses on regular-season games in which elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns. Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors, in these instances, are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remaining modest — between 6% and 29%. These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Overall, this system is 257-154-13 (63%) and has generated a 20% ROI. This season, it is 47-29-1 (62%) and has provided an 18% ROI.
Pick: Under 9 (-110)
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Kyle Murray's Rockies vs Nationals Best Bet: This Line is Too High
By Kyle Murray
I will admit that it is a tough pill to swallow — betting an under on a pitcher's strikeouts prop when they are facing the Rockies, especially considering the fact that starting pitchers have racked up a whopping 26 strikeouts against the Rockies over the past two games.
However, Jake Irvin is not Spencer Strider or Grant Holmes. This season, Irvin has just a 15.3% strikeout rate and a 26% CSW%. So, while this is a good matchup, I think this number is inflated due to the recent success of Atlanta's pitchers over the past couple days. Irvin did have nine strikeouts against the Rockies earlier this season, but only has six or more strikeouts in five of his 14 starts, so I'll take the under on an underwhelming strikeout pitcher. At RotoGrinders, we have him projected for just 4.7 strikeouts.
Pick: Jake Irvin Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
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Derek Carty's Angels vs Yankees Pick: Chisholm Showing Value
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 0.16 home runs for Jazz Chisholm, but oddsmakers are implying 0.12 home runs — so, I believe there is value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 14% of the time, which results in a 31% ROI with expected value of $30.91 (based on a $100 wager).
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Jazz Chisholm 1+ Home Runs (+850)
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