Shohei Ohtani is set to return to the mound and start for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight as 150 favorites against the San Diego Padres.
However, with such a long layoff, what should fans expect? And how should we bet tonight's Padres vs. Dodgers game?
Let's dive into our Shohei Ohtani prop picks and Dodgers vs. Padres predictions for their game on Monday, June 16.
- Padres vs Dodgers Pick: Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 Strikeouts
My Dodgers vs. Padres best bet is for Shohei Ohtani to record under 1.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +129 | 9 -105o / -115u | +129 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -156 | 9 -105o / -115u | -156 |
Padres vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
Shohei Ohtani Strikeout Prop Pick
It's going to be awesome to see Shohei Ohtani back on the mound, but his workload might be extremely limited.
His rehab from a second Tommy John surgery was unique in that he wasn't able to go on a rehab assignment like a typical pitcher. Obviously, he's in the Dodgers' lineup every day as a hitter, so they couldn't send him down, which means he'll need to build back up as a pitcher in regular-season MLB games.
Ohtani's final rehab work saw 44 pitches thrown in a simulated game last Monday. With Ben Casparius stretching out to four innings in his most recent appearance, we could get just one inning from Ohtani as a true opener.
One of the benefits of a two-way player is that his production amounts to a bonus roster spot, so a limited appearance from Ohtani won't tax the bullpen more than normal.
San Diego has the sixth-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching over the past 30 days, and the top of the order makes a ton of contact, which is crucial as Ohtani probably won't make it to the bottom of the lineup.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (16.3% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers this season) will lead off, followed by Luis Arraez (2.1%) and Manny Machado (14.5%). Gavin Sheets (20.5%) is a bit vulnerable in the cleanup spot, and Xander Bogaerts (19.3%) is behind him.
Ohtani posted strikeout rates above 30% in his final two seasons with the Angels, but he's now 30 years old and coming off a second major surgery. It's hard to expect that level of production in his first appearance since August 2023.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 Strikeouts
