The Washington Nationals (30-41) host the Colorado Rockies (14-57) on Monday, June 16, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on COLR.
Read our Rockies vs Nationals prediction and MLB pick below.
My Rockies vs Nationals Prediction
- Rockies vs Nationals Picks: Under 9 (-115, BetMGM)
My Rockies vs Nationals best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Nationals Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 9 -105o / -115u | +170 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 9 -105o / -115u | -210 |
Rockies vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Carson Palmquist (COL) | Stat | RHP Jake Irvin (WSN) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | W-L | 5-3 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 7.77/5.77 | ERA / xERA | 4.21/5.38 |
| 6.75/6.16 | FIP / xFIP | 4.78/4.69 |
| 1.82 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 2.8% | K-BB% | 8.2% |
| 28% | GB% | 40% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 90 | Location+ | 103 |
Rockies vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup features the Nationals as -210 favorites with the Rockies at +170 underdogs, and the run line set at Washington -1.5. But the more compelling angle comes from the total, currently sitting at 9 with slight juice on the under (-115).
On the mound, Carson Palmquist will get the start for Colorado, still searching for his first MLB win after replacing Kyle Freeland (back, IL) in the rotation. On the other side, Jake Irvin takes the ball for Washington, looking to bounce back after a strong May where he went 3-0 with a 3.82 ERA.
The game lines up perfectly with Evan Abrams’ “Public Fades Humidity = Unders” system—an under-the-radar model that’s delivered strong value in MLB totals betting. It keys in on regular-season games with high humidity (between 45% and 95%), moderate temperatures, and little wind. Contrary to public perception, these conditions often suppress scoring, especially when the home team is slumping offensively.
That’s the case here: the Nationals are in a serious rut, having lost eight straight games, including sweeps against both the Cubs and Marlins. Their five-game over rate is below 40%, signaling a cold stretch at the plate. The market has also started to correct, with the total nudging downward since open and a light share of bets landing on the over—well under 30%.
The pick is under 9.
Pick: Under 9 (-115, BetMGM)
