The Seattle Mariners (36-34) host the Boston Red Sox (37-36) on June 16, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Read our Red Sox vs Mariners prediction and MLB pick below.
My Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction
- Red Sox vs Mariners Picks: Under 7 (+100, BetMGM)
My Red Sox vs Mariners best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Mariners Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 7 -120o / 100u | +155 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7 -120o / 100u | -190 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Stat | RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 5.45/5.88 | ERA / xERA | 2.37/2.28 |
| 4.53/4.28 | FIP / xFIP | 2.15/1.72 |
| 1.54 | WHIP | 0.79 |
| 9.8 | K-BB% | 32.5 |
| 40.2 | GB% | 51.5 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 102 | Location+ | 116 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
The betting market lists Seattle as a strong -190 favorite on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line, while Boston enters as a +155 underdog.
On the mound, Logan Gilbert returns for his first start since landing on the IL in late April. He was sharp early in the season and could be on a pitch count, favoring a tighter contest. For Boston, Lucas Giolito is coming off a quality start and will look to anchor the opener of a three-city road trip with momentum.
Despite the power in both lineups, this matchup sets up as a prime environment for a lower-scoring result — especially under the lens of the "Night Time Unders with Wind and Recency Bias" system.
This game checks every key box for that system, which targets late-evening MLB contests in which public pressure on the over is minimal and subtle signals suggest an inflated total.
Seattle just completed a sweep of the Guardians, capping it off with a 6-0 win. That recent success might inflate perceptions of the Mariners' offense, but they’ve gone over the total in just a portion of recent games, staying well within this system’s range. Meanwhile, Boston has won five straight, including a sweep of the Yankees, but much of their success has come via pitching and timely hits — not slugfests.
Weather conditions also support the under. Forecasts show moderate temperatures and a neutral-to-inward winds — classic components of this system. When recent scoring trends, public sentiment, environmental factors and balanced moneyline odds all stack in favor of a lower-scoring game, the under becomes more than a lean — it becomes a value play.
The pick is under 7.
Pick: Under 7 (+100, BetMGM)
