Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, June 16.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Monday, I preview Phillies vs. Marlins, Orioles vs. Rays, Red Sox vs. Mariners and Padres vs. Dodgers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday, June 16.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, June 16
Phillies vs Marlins Pick
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -114o / -108u | -125 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -114o / -108u | +105 |
Mick Abel (PHI) vs. Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
Sandy Alcantara struggled after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but his Stuff returned after the procedure, and now his command is finally there as well.
Just look at his numbers in May compared to April:
- April: 4.74 xFIP, 1.7% K-BB%, 107 Stuff+, 88 Location+, 96 Pitching+, 4.20 botERA
- May: 4.34 xFIP, 10.4% K-BB%,. 109 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 108 Pitching+ 3.46 botERA
He's now coming off his two best outings of the season in which he allowed two runs on seven hits with 10 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched. His underlying metrics were solid as well, with a combined 111 Stuff+, 110 Location+, 116 Pitching+ and 2.35 botERA.
I project his rest-of-season FIP numbers in a range of 3.69-4.02, which fits right in with his career average of 3.83.
On the other side, Mick Abel has a solid 2.35 ERA through three starts with quality pitch modeling metrics, including a Stuff+ mark of 110 and a botERA of 3.41. However, he's also carrying a 5.08 xERA to go along with a .268 BABIP and 100% strand rate.
Miami has also had a better offense than Philadelphia since the injury to Bryce Harper, posting a 102 wRC+ (18th) compared to 86 (25th) for the Phillies.
The Marlins' bullpen has also been better in the last month, ranking eighth in xFIP and K-BB%. Philly, meanwhile, ranks 28th and 26th in those categories, respectively.
Defense is also the same story. Miami sits 22nd in Defensive Runs Saved and 18th in Outs Above Average, while Philadelphia comes in at 30th and 22nd, respectively.
I have the Marlins projected at -105 on the moneyline, so I'd bet them to +104.
And I projected the total (with umpire information) at 7.85 runs; bet Under 8.5 to -115.
Pick: Marlins ML +115 (Play to +104) | Under 8.5 -105 (Play to -115)
Orioles vs Rays Pick
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -215 | 8.5 -120o / -104u | +104 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -120o / -104u | -130 |
Zach Eflin (BAL) vs. Ryan Pepiot (TB)
The weather in Tampa on Monday calls for 86-degree temperatures with a real feel of 94 and 4-5 MPH winds blowing out to left center.
Steinbrenner Field has interesting Park Factors as well. It's even (+0%) for run-scoring despite increasing singles by 6% and home runs by 19%, while reducing doubles by 19% and triples by about 51%.
It's comparable to Yankee Stadium, which is also even (+0%) for run scoring but increases home runs by +22% HR while reducing doubles by 9% and triples by 49% since 2023.
I project the total at 9.53 given the weather and would make in about 8.7 in a weather-neutral game in Tampa or the Bronx. With that said, I'd bet the over at 8.5 (-120) and play it to 9 (-110).
Eflin has also had home-run issues this season, posting a career-worst 1.7 HR/9 on a career-high 41% FB% (36% career). His K% is also down to 16.9%. He has shown that his command is still elite, but opposing batters are squaring him up more often.
On the other side, Pepiot has a comparable career HR rate (1.33 HR/9; 1.31 for Eflin). That's bad news since Baltimore's offense is starting to catch fire.
The Orioles have posted a wRC+ of 115 (7th) since Colton Cowser returned on June 3, and they have a wRC+ of 125 (7th) since Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins re-joined the lineup on June 10.
I have the Orioles projected at +110, so I'm going to wait to get a +110 on Baltimore.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120 · Play to 9 at -110) · Orioles ML +110
Red Sox vs Mariners Pick
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 7 -120o / 100u | +155 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7 -120o / 100u | -188 |
Lucas Giolito (BOS) vs. Logan Gilbert (SEA)
The Red Sox are without Rafael Devers after trading him to the Giants, which is interesting since Devers had posted a career-best wRC+ of 145 and .397 xwOBA after a slow start.
The line opened at Mariners -168, assuming Devers would be in the lineup and Boston in a cross-country travel spot.
The Red Sox now have a projected 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers without Devers because they only have two above-average hitters in that split in Jarren Duran and Roman Anthony. Previously, I had them projected at a 100 wRC+ with Devers in the lineup, and they had posted 101 (19th) against righties as a team this season.
Boston is essentially letting the white flag fly after sweeping its rival at home and getting over .500, ruining the only good vibes it's had all season. The Sox sacrificed their 2025 season to dump a potential albatross.
Devers was owed north of $250 million through 2033 and has shoulder injuries in both shoulders that derailed the end of his 2024 season (95 wRC+, .727 OPS in the second half). He’s also one of the worst defenders in the sport with a combined -24 at third base since 2022. Philadelphia's Alec Bohm (-29) is the only worse third baseman at -29.
If Devers slumped again in the second half of 2025, they might not be able to move off of a decade-long commitment. And their relationship with their star had clearly soured. This is ultimately a great business move for the organization, but it's terrible for PR and winning in 2025
On the other side, Logan Gilbert returns after suffering a right elbow flexor strain. He properly rehabbed in Triple-A on June 10, allowing one hit and one walk with six strikeouts in five innings of work.
Before his injury, Gilbert had posted a career-best 2.29 xERA, 32.5% K-BB% (20.2% career), 32.9% CSW% (27.4% career), 115 Pitching+ (108 career) and 3.01 botERA (3.71 career).
He has scrapped his cutter (93 Stuff+) for more splitters (141 Stuff+, up from 13% to 21%). His big jump started in the second half of 2024, as he posted a 2.45 xFIP and 27.7% K-BB%.
For Giolito, his stuff has been down with marks of 89 in Stuff+, 93 in Pitching+ and 4.41 in botERA. Before he had Tommy John surgery, those sat at 101, 101 and 4.13, respectively.
His command has been fine (102 Location+), but his K% of 17.9% is nearly half of his peak of 33.7% from 2020. His K-BB% rate (9.8%) is nearly half of his career average (16%) as well.
I'm betting the Mariners for a fourth consecutive day. I project this line at -210, so I'll be them to -190.
Pick: Mariners ML -185 (Play to -190)
Padres vs Dodgers Pick
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9 -105o / -115u | +125 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 -105o / -115u | -150 |
Dylan Cease (SD) vs. Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
Shohei Ohtani will be making his first start with the Dodgers after taking last season off on the mound. He hasn't had a rehab start and will work as a multi-inning opener.
In his most recent simulated game, he worked three innings and threw 44 pitches.
I project Ohtani's FIP in the 3.55-4.14 range (3.31 career) and his K-BB% in the 16.9-19.4% range (22.3% career). His career modeling numbers include a Stuff+ of 117 and a botERA of 3.41.
Ben Casparius, who worked four innings on June 11, was the initially scheduled starter for the Dodgers, and I was planning to bet him in a bullpen game at the same price point. He has been elite out of the bullpen, posting a 2.88 xERA, 20.9% K-BB%, 120 Stuff+ and 2.90 botERA.
In fact, Casparius ranks second in NL Rookie WAR (1.5) behind Milwaukee's Chad Patrick (1.7) and ahead of Atlanta's Drake Baldwin (1.4).
He had a wicked slider (136 Stuff+) with a plus cutter (109) and curve (119). Casparius will drastically outperform FIP projections that sit in the 3.96-4.36 range.
On the other side, the Padres will be without Jackson Merrill, who suffered a concussion and was placed on the concussion IL.
It's worth noting that the Dodgers are the No. 1 offense against right-handed pitchers (126 wRC+), while the Padres rank 14th in that area (103). However, that gap has grown in the last month, with L.A. sitting at fifth (119) and San Diego coming in at 28th (85).
There's also a big power discrepancy at play. The Dodgers rank second in ISO and first in home runs. The Padres, meanwhile, enter at 27th in both categories.
San Diego's bullpen has also struggled of late, ranking 27th in xFIP and 17th in K-BB%. Those marks have moved to 27th and 25th, respectively, over the last two weeks.
The Padres started the season 14-3 but have played under .500 ball (25-28) since May 1.
I project the Dodgers at -168 and would bet them to -155.
Pick: Dodgers ML -150 (Play to -155)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, June 16
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- Marlins ML +115 (Play to +104)
- Mariners ML -174 (Play to -190)
- Dodgers ML -142 (Play to -155)
- Athletics ML +135 (Play to +130)
- Phillies vs. Marlins Under 8.5 -105 (Play to -115)
- Orioles vs. Rays Over 8.5 -120 (Play to 9 at -110)
