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Zylbert: What Does History Tell Us About Game 7 Over/Unders?

Oct 20, 2018 7:07 PM EDT

Betting odds: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

  • Over/Under: 7.5
  • First pitch: 8:09 p.m. ET
  • Probable pitchers: Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA) vs. Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50 ERA)
  • TV channel: FS1

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record

  • Regular Season: 102-73-4, +21.45 units
  • Postseason: 6-9-1, -4.75 units
  • Yesterday’s Result: Dodgers-Brewers Under 8, Ryu vs. Miley (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


In the waning moments of Game 6 that saw the Brewers even the National League Championship Series at three games apiece, Hall of Fame pitcher and FOX broadcaster John Smoltz commented, “I know this: I like Game 7s. And I’m not looking at one stat for tomorrow. That’s the beauty of it.”

Irony aside (since that’s part of his job as the color commentator), Smoltz does raise a valid point. When it comes to playing in an LCS Game 7, there’s nothing else in the world like it.

You either win and advance to the World Series, or lose and see your season go up in smoke. Thus it is understandable when players react differently, perhaps severely, from their norm facing such monumental ramifications.

Fortunately, I don’t think we have to worry about that too much in this instance, at least as it concerns the starting pitchers. And while Smoltz may disagree, there’s sufficient statistical evidence to back this sentiment.

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Credit:

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Walker Buehler.

Follow Matt Zylbert on Twitter
@MattZylbert

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