Phillies vs. Cubs Weather: How Bettors Should Approach Light Winds at Wrigley

May 20, 2019 1:46 PM EDT
Credit:

Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Yu Darvish.

  • The wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field tonight for the Phillies-Cubs game (8:05 p.m. ET), but only at a few mph.
  • We break down how the over/under has fared in similar situations using The Action Network's betting tools.

You wake up, check the forecast and see that the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field. Butyou also see that it’s blowing at just a few mph on average. WYD?

I’m going to look at a few different factors to determine how bettors should approach this game.

Let’s first get the pertinent details of this game out of the way.

Phillies (Jake Arrieta) at Cubs (Yu Darvish)

8:05 p.m. ET | Over/under: 8.5

As you can see, the wind is coming in, but at no point will it average even 5 mph. Historically, playing the under when the wind blows in at Wrigley has been a great move per Bet Labs, going 103-72-12 (58.9%).

However, when we look at games with average wind speeds of less than 5 mph, that record is just 14-18-4 (43.8%) compared to 89-54-8 (62.2%) for 5 mph or higher.

In games at Wrigley with temps of 50 degrees or less, the under has done fairly well at 17-13-2. Neither trend quite has the sample size I desire, though.

With those two trends essentially negating each other, I decided to go over to FantasyLabs to check the Weather Rating … and it’s low AF as the kids would say.