The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees on April 30, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.
Two struggling starters will clash in Wednesday's rubber match, as Carlos Carrasco (5.26 ERA, 25 2/3 IP) will face off against Cade Povich (5.04 ERA, 25 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction
- Yankees vs Orioles pick: Over 9.5 (-102 | Play to -120)
My Yankees vs Orioles best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 9.5 -102o / -120u | +102 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 9.5 -102o / -120u | -120 |
Yankees vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Carlos Carrasco (NYY) | Stat | LHP Cade Povich (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 5.26/5.12 | ERA /xERA | 5.04/5.32 |
| 5.34/4.74 | FIP / xFIP | 4.40/4.08 |
| 1.36 | WHIP | 1.72 |
| 7.3 | K-BB% | 12.3 |
| 38.6 | GB% | 41.5 |
| 82 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 104 |
Nick Martin’s Yankees vs Orioles Preview
Yankees Betting Preview: Carrasco Struggles, Offense Carries Load
The Yankees became a trendy pick to miss the playoffs at the tail end of spring training.
They were still a massive favorite to make the postseason despite losing two key starters in Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil for significant periods of time and were competing in what looked likely to be a highly competitive AL East division.
Aaron Judge and the Yankees' high-powered offense have taken a lot of pressure off of the pitching staff early on, as New York ranks second in baseball with an average of 5.77 runs scored per game.
More impressive than their actual output of runs is their wRC+ rating of 139, which ranks first in baseball by a wide margin.
They've slugged .481 as a team, led by Judge's absurd .728 slug rate. Paul Goldschmidt looks to have refound his groove at age 37 after some down years, as he holds an OPS of .871 and has averaged .363. Key young talents in Anthony Volpe and Ben Rice have both been highly impactful at the plate, and the Yankees’ lineup currently looks much deeper than in recent years.
The Yankees hold a 16.2% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio, which is due to come down to earth in time, but after finishing 2024 as the second-most productive lineup in baseball, the Yankees appear to be comparably dominant in 2025.
The Yankees will likely be without one key bat in this matchup, as Jazz Chisholm suffered an oblique injury in last night's 15-3 win.
With three starters on the IL, Carrasco has earned a spot in the rotation and has been relatively ineffective, which isn't surprising considering that he finished his previous two seasons with ERAs of 5.24 and 6.80, respectively.
The 38-year-old righty is fighting an uphill battle with a severe lack of velocity. His fastball grades out horribly (67 Stuff+ rating), and has been crushed, as batters hold a .722 xSLG versus his four-seamer.
He's relied often on his slider as a result, but batters have slugged .692 against it. He holds a 5.10 xERA and a 4.74 xFIP.
Carrasco enters off his best outing of the season versus the Toronto Blue Jays, as he held Toronto scoreless across five innings of work while allowing only three runs.
The underlying results suggest it could've been much worse, though, as the Blue Jays had seven hard-hit balls and five with exit velocities above 100 mph while holding a xBA of .307.
Orioles Betting Preview: Povich Searching for Consistency
The Orioles' unproductive play at the plate has been one of the more notable surprises early on in the 2025 season, as they've averaged only 3.97 runs per game and rank 19th in wRC+.
Baltimore ranked third in wRC+ rating in 2024, but has struggled to replicate that same level of production, as the majority of its key young batters have disappointed early on.
Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad have both had unproductive starts to the season. While it was hard to know exactly what to expect from the pair of highly touted young talents, it seemed reasonable to believe one or both could be more effective at the plate than we've seen thus far.
Adley Rutschman's lack of production has been a much greater surprise, as he obviously is more proven at the big-league level, but he's hit just .208 with a .354 slug rate.
The underlying metrics suggest he's starting to find it at the plate, and it shouldn't be a surprise if he starts to offer higher production moving forward.
Povich hasn't gotten off to a good start by any means, as he holds a 5.32 xERA and 4.40 FIP this season. He's now pitched over 100 innings at the big league level and holds a career ERA of 5.16.
Pitch metrics do suggest he can offer close to league average results (94 Stuff+ rating, 99 Pitching+ rating).
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Backing this game to feature over 9.5 runs is definitely the chalkiest play from this matchup, as it appears to be a low total featuring two highly unconvincing starters.
