Thanks to a doubleheader, there are 16 games on the Major League Baseball slate on Wednesday, April 30. Naturally, I've scoured the MLB home run props market in search of value HR picks for Wednesday
Tonight, I like four sluggers to go yard. I have two players in the Red Sox-Blue Jays game (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rafael Devers), one from Yankees-Orioles (Cedric Mullins) and one from Athletics-Rangers (old favorite, Brent Rooker).
Continue below for my four MLB home run prop bets and parlay picks for Wednesday, April 30.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds Today — 4/30
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:25 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 8:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for April 30
Cedric Mullins Home Run (+625)
vs. Yankees (SP: RHP Carlos Carrasco)
Cedric Mullins gets a good matchup against Yankees right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who is not the same pitcher he used to be.
He's been well below average for years and has been averaging about 1.70 HR/9 over the last three seasons. Despite allowing more HRs to righties in that span, he grades out as a much better matchup for lefty power.
Mullins has been great to start the season with six homers in 27 games. Camden Yards is a plus for lefty power, and the weather should be good for hitting, with neutral winds and temperatures close to 80.
I have the true odds here just above +500.
Rafael Devers Home Run (+475)
at Blue Jays (SP: TBD)
Rafael Devers has been great recently with three homers in his last four games, and his underlying power numbers are the best of his career by a large margin.
I have the true odds here 100 points lower.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+520)
vs. Red Sox (SP: RHP Lucas Giolito)
We haven't seen Lucas Giolito in years, but he has always been a pitcher with large reverse splits and has struggled heavily with righty power (career 1.64 HR/9).
If we assume that Giolito is the same pitcher he was before he got injured, this is a great bet, and if he starts off rusty, this is an even better bet.
After a slow start to the season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has really gotten things together recently, and the barrel and hard-contact numbers have been good.
I have the true odds here more than 100 points below this number.
Brent Rooker Home Run (+450)
vs. Rangers (SP: RHP Nathan Eovaldi)
This bet is strictly a price play.
Globe Life Field isn't great for home runs, and the matchup against the Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi isn't anything special either, but when I can get one of the best HR hitters in the league at +450, I'm going to take it.
I have the true odds here around +350.
