The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres are set to kick off Game 2 of their 3-game series on Wednesday at 4:10 p.m. ET. The game can be viewed on NBCS-BA or MLB.TV.
The Padres took care of business on Tuesday night with a 7-4 victory over the Giants. This afternoon, Michael King will be on the mound for the Padres, taking on Landen Roupp for the Giants.
Let's dive into my Giants vs Padres prediction and MLB picks for Wednesday, April 30.
My Giants vs Padres Prediction
- Giants vs Padres picks: F5 Under 4 (-130 · Play to 3.5 at -110)
My Giants vs Padres best bet is under 4 in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Padres Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7 -105o / -115u | +125 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7 -105o / -115u | -150 |
Giants vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Landen Roupp (SFG) | Stat | RHP Michael King (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 4.56/3.24 | ERA /xERA | 2.18/2.67 |
| 3.47/3.27 | FIP / xFIP | 2.93/3.29 |
| 1.52 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 17.7% | K-BB% | 21.5% |
| 44.1% | GB% | 41.5% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 109 | Location+ | 108 |
Giants vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Needing Roupp to Turn Up
The Giants send Landen Roupp to the mound to stifle the Padres offense. It's a tough matchup for Roupp, as the Padres strike out the least out of any team in the big leagues.
With that said, Roupp's numbers don't illustrate the whole story. Roupp owns a 4.56 ERA but a 3.23 xERA before today's start. He has taken a step forward from last season, with his strikeout, whiff and chase rates all at a higher level.
He won't light up the radar gun but has excellent movement on his sinker, cutter and curveball. He's done a great job keeping hitters off-balanced thus far, inducing a 46% groundball rate and 27% hard-hit rate.
Roupp needs to get his control in order, but he should see better results if he can continue to miss bats and limit hard contact. He has also held the Padres hitless in 12 plate appearances against him in a small sample size.
It's not an easy matchup, but the Padres are also bottom-10 in runs scored per game. They've been dealing with many injuries lately, so the market hasn't fully adjusted.
Roupp needs to turn in a solid performance because the Giants offense will have its hands full against Michael King. They're batting .210 against him over 62 plate appearances, and he's another arm that's due for better fortune moving forward.
The Giants rank 10th in runs scored per game and hit .235 against right-handed pitchers. Considering this, the market has set the total at 7; this offense could be in for a long afternoon at the plate.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Injuries Aren't Slowing SD Down
The Padres have dealt with key offensive injuries over the last few weeks, but they continue to win. They're coming off a seven-run offensive performance and will have an opportunity to clinch a series victory on Wednesday.
The offense doesn't strike out much. But it may not be as easy as a matchup against Roupp.
Given that Roupp is due for good fortune, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Padres offense scuffle a bit on Wednesday. With that in mind, Michael King needs to deliver a strong effort.
King is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, as he possesses an elite strikeout arsenal. He's been touched up a bit through hard contact at times in 2025, but last year's results suggest that it will only regress moving forward.
He has carved up these Giants' hitters in the past, and they also strike out the eighth-most out of any MLB team. King's 2.18 ERA is slightly lower than his 2.63 xERA, which is outstanding.
I expect the offense to struggle more than people perceive against Roupp, but King's dominance should keep San Diego within striking distance to win on Wednesday afternoon.
Giants vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a terrific spot to take an F5 under. The market hasn't adjusted correctly to Roupp's underlying metrics, and it's a decent spot to fade both of these offenses.
I alluded to King's elite metrics above, as well as his past success against the Giants. With all of that in mind, this sets up both offenses to struggle in the early going.
I'll eliminate any bullpen variance and solely focus on these two starting pitchers, who should keep this below the number through the first five innings.
Pick: F5 Under 4 -130 (Play to 3.5 -110)
Giants vs Padres Betting Trends
