MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Preview (July 21)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Preview (July 21) article feature image
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Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez.

  • The New York Yankees host the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday in Major League Baseball action.
  • The Yankees were led by sluggers Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton in Tuesday's victory.
  • Mike Ianniello analyzes the contest below and details why he expects the offenses to shine.

Phillies vs. Yankees Odds

Phillies Odds +105
Yankees Odds -125
Over/Under 10
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.

Despite falling Tuesday in the first game of a pair against the New York Yankees, the Philadelphia Phillies have been surging up the standings. They have gone 10-5 in July, with no team boasting a better record this month. Now, Philadelphia is just 2.5 games behind the New York Mets for the NL East lead.

The Yankees have also been playing well, going 7-3 in their last 10 games. New York has won three games in a row, despite dealing with some COVID-19 issues resulting in Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela and Kyle Higashioka sidelined.

That’s on top of Luke Voit, Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar being on the injured list, plus DJ LeMahieu being scratched Tuesday with a stomach bug.

The makeshift New York lineup was able to put up 10 hits and four home runs in the 6-4 victory against Philadelphia in the opener.

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Phillies Turning to Shaky Bullpen for Latest Affair

With Zach Eflin placed on the injured list Tuesday, the Phillies will be forced to throw a bullpen game in this meeting. I’m sure the thought of that makes Philadelphia fans shutter with nerves. The club’s relievers rank 22nd in the league in ERA and 24th in FIP this season.

Who will actually get the ball first has not yet been announced, but opponents are batting .248 against the Phillies relievers this season, with only four bullpen units being worse. Philadelphia leads the league with 23 blown saves.

The Phillies’ bats have been really heating up since the start of July. They have the best record in the league this month, scoring the fifth-most runs over that span. Philly ranks 11th in batting average and fifth in OPS.

And it has been the stars leading the way, with Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins all batting over .300 with an OPS above .880 in July. Hoskins has an OPS of 1.170, highlighted by four home runs and 13 RBIs this month. He leads the team in hits, runs, doubles, home runs and RBIs as well.

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Yankees Giving Wojciechowski Start on Mound

The Yankees will start (double-checks spelling) right-handed pitcher Asher Wojciechowski. A lifetime journeyman, the 32-year-old has spent time as part of the Blue Jays, Astros, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Reds, Orioles, White Sox, Indians, Orioles again and now Yankees organizations.

This will be Wojciechowski’s first MLB appearance of this season. He has pitched in four games overall, making three starts for Triple-A Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and has a 5.68 ERA this year. He has made 189 career appearances, with 167 starts in the minor leagues.

Over parts of four seasons in the big leagues (2015, 2017, 2019 and 2020), Wojciechowski has made 34 career MLB starts and pitched in 57 total games. He has a career 9-15 record with a 5.95 ERA. Most of his starts came in the last two seasons with Baltimore.

Despite the Yankees ranking 13th in league in wOBA, they’ve been one of baseball’s unluckiest teams. Their xwOBA ranks sixth in the league. However, over the last 30 days, they sit fifth in wOBA, so maybe their luck is finally regressing to the mean.

For New York fans like myself, Tuesday’s lineup could have been a terrifying sight. Until you looked a little closer and realized… it was beautiful. Six lefties! I cannot remember the last time the Yankees had that many left-handed bats in the lineup. And those lefties had five hits, a double, triple and two home runs, including the first career home run for high-end prospect Estevan Florial.

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Phillies-Yankees Pick

While the Yankees’ 49-44 record is undoubtedly disappointing and finds them in fourth in the AL East, that record would have them second in three other divisions, including above the Phillies in the NL East.

The Yankees have gotten a lot of bad luck this season, with balls expected to be hits resulting in outs. It looks like that is finally starting to even out for them, as the offense has picked up lately. The one thing they have done well all season is hit the ball hard, leading the league with a 42.7 HardHit percentage.

New York will be starting a guy making his first appearance of the season who has a 5.95 career ERA and spent most of his career in the minors. We don’t even know who the Phillies will start, but it will most likely be a guy called up from Triple-A as well.

The Yankees showed their lineup of misfit toys can still get the job done, posting six runs with a perfect blend of small ball from Greg Allen, and Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez still hitting bombs.

Even in defeat, the Phillies hit the ball well, but left 11 men on base. Their big guns of Realmuto, Harper and Hoskins have been on fire and both teams have a lot of momentum at the plate.

I expect fireworks in the Bronx and will back the over 10 at -110 odds or better.

Pick: Over 10 (-110)

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