MLB Player Props: Lauer Outage in Colorado?

MLB Player Props: Lauer Outage in Colorado? article feature image
Credit:

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Lauer.

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/under for Eric Lauer.

I re-retired from strikeout props yesterday. I think if I take an under on a guy and he pitches six innings and whiffs nobody, I deserve to retire.

Just kidding, again. Nothing on yesterday’s relatively small slate enticed me enough to bet and I certainly can’t write an entire article about something that I personally don’t believe in. Don’t want to get greedy.

MLB Player Props: Friday, May 10

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. View live odds for individual games here.

Padres SP Eric Lauer

Tonight, the Fathers head to Coors Field to take on the Rockies at high-scoring Coors Field. You know you’re playing baseball in the mountains when: A) there’s 23 runs scored in a game with temperatures in the 30s and snow falling, and B) there’s freaking snow falling on May 9th.

Anywho, there’s no snow falling tonight, but Coors should give pitchers the troubles it normally does.

Eric Lauer, a 23-year old southpaw, pitched six shutout innings on Opening Day against the Giants, but has been consistently “meh” since then. People also don’t say Lauer Outage when referring to him the way they say Bauer Outage about Trevor Bauer, but hey — maybe that will catch on.

In six starts since opening day, he’s pitched between five and six innings in each outing and allowed between two and five earned runs a pop.

Despite his mediocrity, he’s also struck out at least five men in each of his past five starts and eight of his past 11 dating back to last September.

Today, his strikeout over/under is 4.5. And, we have some juicy plus-money on the over.

Obviously, concern number one is that Lauer gets pulverized and can’t go deep enough into the game to accumulate five strikeouts. With nearly 150 big-league innings under his belt, he’s posted a K/9 of 8.06.  He’s probably not going to hit 5 Ks if he gets pulled after a few innings. Luckily, the Rockies rank top-10 in strikeout rate against lefties this year.

The +131 juice on the over implies just 3.9 strikeouts for Lauer, but we’re projecting 5.9. I would play this down to even money.

The Pick: Over 4.5 (+131)