MLB Player Props: Can Syndergaard Pile Up Strikeouts Against the Reds?

MLB Player Props: Can Syndergaard Pile Up Strikeouts Against the Reds? article feature image
Credit:

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Noah Syndergaard.

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/under for Noah Syndergaard.

When I checked the box score on the Action App (nice app btw) and saw that Marcus Stroman had struck out two batters in the first inning, I buried my face in the pillow and cried myself to sleep.

When I woke up this morning, puffy eyed and dehydrated, I was shocked to see that he ended the night with just three strikeouts and cashed our under play! Though I had to put on an ice pack while doing my stomach crunches (I can do 1,000 now), I wouldn’t go as far as saying I overreacted.

MLB Player Props — Thursday, May 2

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. View live odds for individual games here.

Mets SP Noah Syndergaard

The Pick: Under 6.5 (+110)

Earlier in the week, I advised you readers to take Zack Wheeler under 6 strikeouts (+110) against the Reds. He struck out four. My play before that on Saturday was Noah Syndergaard under 7.5 (-116) against the Brewers. He struck out five.

Today, I’ll basically be combining the two picks — Thor under 6.5 against the Reds.

There are a couple of reasons why I like this play.

First of all, as was the case with Wheeler, Syndergaard faces a Reds lineup that doesn’t strike out a ton against right-handers. It is not quite as good of a situation as we had the other night, though, as this particular lineup lacks Joey Votto. The SO/AB stat via FantasyLabs’ player models reads .217 compared to .200 the other night, but is still a lower-than-average number.

Secondly, Thor just isn’t a massive strikeout guy. Above-average, but not extraordinary. He’s been right around 10 K/9 throughout his career, which is a rung down from the 12-13 K/9 you see from the uber-elite.

Syndergaard is certainly capable of seven strikeouts or more in a game, but he’d likely need to pitch at least six innings. With walks leading to higher pitch counts earlier in games, he’s been able to pitch only five innings in three straight outings.

Third, Syndergaard is a popular guy. As is the case with betting on popular teams, the line, in my opinion, is shaded in his favor — which happens to be the over for strikeout props. As a result, we have plus-money on the under. He’s struck out fewer than seven hitters in 19 of his 31 starts since the start of last season, and we project he’ll get just 5.6 today.