Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet this Starting Pitching Edge (Saturday, August 20)
Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Starting pitcher Michael Wacha #52 of the Boston Red Sox
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds
|Red Sox Odds||-125|
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via . Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After a 15-10 victory Friday night, the Baltimore Orioles look to clinch the series victory over the Boston Red Sox Saturday afternoon.
Kyle Bradish takes the mound for the Orioles against the Red Sox’s 2022 statistical ace, Michael Wacha.
Although Wacha missed a month due to injury, he made a strong return in his last start. On the other side, Bradish is still looking to develop consistency at the top level.
Both teams are 5-5 over their last 10 games and both are trying to keep their playoff dreams alive in a tightly-contested AL Wild Card division.
Boston Red Sox
Wacha was dominant in his return from the IL on Sunday; he’ll look for more of the same Saturday afternoon.
However, Wacha is pitching in an unfavorable split as a visitor. This season he’s posted a 3.79 ERA and a 4.20 FIP on the road, which is more than two runs higher and one run higher respectively than his home numbers.
The Red Sox offense has also been in a lull as of late, especially on the road. They have a 91 wRC+ on the road against RHP over the past two weeks, which ranks 15th in baseball.
Despite being right at league average, the whole league seems to be scuffling offensively on the road as of late; this is definitely a red flag.
Additionally, the Red Sox bullpen boasts the second highest staff ERA over the past couple weeks. The unit is average in FIP, meaning they could be due for positive regression, but they have been an inconsistent group over the course of the season.
It is hard to root against the Orioles these days, but it’s also hard to back Bradish. Even in spacious Camden Yards, Bradish has a home ERA and FIP both north of 6, with no positive regression in sight.
Additionally, the O’s bullpen has been much worse since trading away Jorge Lopez at the deadline. The instability in the pen has resulted in unreliable performances since August.
Baltimore’s offense is still raking despite the loss of Trey Mancini. Over the past two weeks, they have the second best team wRC+ at home against RHP in the majors.
Red Sox-Orioles Pick
The Red Sox have a clear edge in starting pitching today.
Although Wacha’s road numbers do not inspire a ton of confidence, they are much better than Bradish’s home numbers.
Since both bullpens are unpredictable at this point, it seems like all full game bets might be off the table.
One that does jump out, however, is the Red Sox first five run line. It sits at +110 for -0.5, which seems to be the best value on the board.
Considering the edge in the starting pitching department, take the Red Sox first five run line -0.5 while it’s still plus money.
Pick: Red Sox F5 -0.5 +110
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