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Rockies vs. Mets MLB Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Wednesday’s Over/Under (May 26)

Rockies vs. Mets MLB Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Wednesday’s Over/Under (May 26) article feature image

Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher Marcus Stroman.

  • The New York Mets take on the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday at Citi Field.
  • Both clubs have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching this season, which could be an issue for both in this contest.
  • Mike Vitanza breaks down the game below and details why he's backing the under in this latest meeting.

Rockies vs. Mets Odds

Rockies Odds+115
Mets Odds-140
Over/Under6.5 (-120/+100)
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via BetMGM.

On the backs of Jacob DeGrom and a strong bullpen, the New York Mets earned a 3-1 win over the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday in the second game of this series.

Offensively, the Mets were led by Tomas Nido and Jonathan Villar, each of whom contributed big performances at the plate. Nido had a two-run home run in the sixth inning, while Villar added multiple hits out of the leadoff spot. Dominic Smith also had a a two-hit night for New York.

Meanwhile, the Rockies managed just three hits, one of which was a solo home run by third basemen Ryan McMahon.

Through the first two games, these teams have combined for a paltry eight runs. Should we expect the bats to wake up in Wednesday's series finale or can we expect another low-scoring affair at Citi Field?

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Misleading Numbers Surround Colorado Starter Marquez

German Marquez will make his 11th start of the season for the Rockies. Marquez’s 4.82 ERA thus far would typically signal he’s had a rough go of it, but in reality that number is a bit misleading.

His 3.97 FIP — nearly a full run lower than his ERA — indicates that he’s actually run into a bit of bad luck thus far. He has one outing that has substantially inflated his ERA as well. On May 4 against the San Francisco Giants, Marquez was charged with eight earned runs in just two thirds of an inning.

When we dive in deeper, we see Marquez has managed to limit the long ball (he’s allowed an average of just 0.86 HR/9), while also increasing his strikeout rate from a season ago. His 9.6 K/9 this year is also actually nearly two strikeouts higher than his 8.0 K/9 from 2019, an indicator he’s actually been relatively effective so far this season.

That increase in strikeouts has also translated into a higher Swinging Strike rate, which moved up to 12.8% versus 12.2% a year ago. His rate this season is also substantially above his career average of 11.6%.

Marquez will take on a Mets' team that has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .285 wOBA, which is currently third worst in all of baseball.

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Stroman Putting Together Solid Campaign in New York

Marcus Stroman will toe the rubber for the Mets after what has been a successful start to the season. Over 52 2/3 innings pitched, Stroman has compiled a 3.74 FIP and has been successful in limiting home runs. This has been typical throughout his career.

While his average of 1.06 HR/9 is above his career average of 0.84 HR/9, both numbers are extremely strong, especially when you consider the home run totals we’ve seen throughout his career.

Stroman has also been relatively consistent of late. He has two quality starts over his last three outings, while also pitching at least five innings in five consecutive games. In fact, with the exception of a May 16 start where he allowed five earned runs, he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his April 30 start.

This matchup is a good one. He’ll take on another team that has struggled against right-handed pitching as well, hitting to a .291 wOBA, which is the seventh-worst overall.

If Stroman has issues facing Colorado, New York will once again have its league-best bullpen to turn to in relief. Over 146 2/3 innings, the bullpen has accrued a 3.20 FIP, which is the best in baseball this year.

Rockies-Mets Pick

The current total at this one sits at a low 6.5 runs, which is an uncomfortable number even with teams squaring off who have struggled offensively for nearly the entire season.

That said, I don’t expect many runs in this affair. Both offenses are among the worst against right-handed pitching and each of the starting pitchers has been relatively effective this year, with the exception of a couple of starts.

I’m not entirely comfortable betting at the current line of 6.5 runs, but I will look to jump on the under if the line moves up to seven runs.

Pick: Under 7 Runs (or above if line moves)

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