Royals vs. Yankees Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Tuesday’s Over/Under (June 22)

Royals vs. Yankees Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Tuesday’s Over/Under (June 22) article feature image
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Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees.

  • New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has put together another dominant season, but Cole and the Yankees have also shown signs of vulnerability recently.
  • Can New York continue its ascent up the AL East standings with a win against Kansas City on Tuesday, or will Brady Singer and the Royals play spoiler?
  • Below, Mike Vitanza offers his betting preview, including updated odds, picks and prediction for Royals vs. Yankees on Tuesday, June 22.

Royals vs. Yankees Odds

Royals Odds +225
Yankees Odds -275
Over/Under 7.5 (-112 / -108)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV YES
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via FanDuel.

The Kansas City Royals (32-38) and New York Yankees (38-33) begin a three-game set on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

After taking two-of-three against the Boston Red Sox this past weekend, the Royals find themselves in third place in the American League Central entering tonight’s bout. Despite Kansas City’s recent series win against Boston, the team remains 10 games behind the division-leading Chicago White Sox.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are winners of five of their last six and seemingly turned a corner last week. Nearly a week ago, they found themselves nine games behind in the AL East standings. But as of Tuesday, New York is just 4.5 games back of the division-leading Red Sox.

With ace starting pitcher Gerrit Cole on the mound, the Yankees certainly like their chances at home tonight. Does New York’s current moneyline offer any value, or should we be looking towards the total in this American League showdown?

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Kansas City Royals

Brady Singer will make his 15th start of the season for the Royals on Tuesday night. The second-year pitcher has been a rare bright spot in Kansas City: He has compiled a 3.45 FIP and has struck out batters at a strong 9.9 K/9 clip in over 68 innings. He’s also been successful at limiting the long ball, allowing an average of just 0.66 HR/9 thus far.

Singer is primarily a fastball pitcher, but he keeps batters off balance with a strong slider — a pitch he throws nearly 35% of the time. The result? He has allowed an impressively low 4.0% barrel rate, nearly half of what the typical MLB hitter averages over the course of a season.

Tonight, Singer faces a Yankees team that has averaged a pedestrian .308 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. New York has been particularly hot recently, but the team has also proven its limitations against above-average pitching. As a resent example, Sean Manaea and the Oakland Athletics limited New York to just two runs this past Sunday.

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New York Yankees

Starting pitcher Gerrit Cole has been in typically dominant form over the course of the 2021 season. He has pitched to a 2.44 FIP and whiffed batters at an 11.74 K/9 clip in 14 starts. On top of that, Cole also allows only one home run per nine innings on average.

His last start against the Toronto Blue Jays was no different. He pitched eight innings and allowed just two runs while striking out four batters. Cole’s spin rate has been down during his last two starts, but the results have still been there. During that two-game span, he has allowed just four earned runs and struck out 13 batters in 14 innings of action.

Tonight, Cole takes on a Royals team that has been merely average against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .305 wOBA in 2021.

If Cole is limited in any fashion, Yankees manager Aaron Boone will have no hesitation turning to a bullpen that has been one of the best in MLB this season. Over 261 2/3 innings, the Yankees pen of relievers has compiled a 3.87 FIP: The sixth-best mark in all of baseball.

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Royals vs. Yankees Pick

While I fully expect the Yankees to come out on top with Cole on the mound, there’s no value on the Yankees moneyline at -310. In fact, given how strong Singer has pitched this season — and how the Royals played this past weekend against the Red Sox — taking a stab on the underdog (Royals +250) would be the more intriguing bet.

That said, I’m avoiding a side and instead targeting the under in this one. Despite his reduced spin rate during his last two starts, Cole has continued to limit damage and keep runs off the scoreboard. Even when Cole is not at his best, he still finds ways to keep opposing lineups in check more often than not.

On the other side, Singer has also excelled for Kansas City. He draws a matchup with a Yankees team that has been just league average against righties. Additionally, if Boone keeps the typical lineup that he’s previously used with Cole on the mound, then the Yankees’ hottest hitter, Gary Sanchez, will likely sit in favor of backup Kyle Higashioka.

I’m betting the current total at Under 8, but if the line falls from here, I’ll be looking to avoid this one altogether.

Pick: Under 8

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