Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Can Daniel Norris Hold Down Brewers?

Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Can Daniel Norris Hold Down Brewers? article feature image

Phillip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Wade Miley

Betting odds: Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers

  • Over/Under: 8.5
  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Probable Pitchers: Daniel Norris (0-5, 5.22 ERA) vs. Wade Miley (5-2, 2.32 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 101-72-4, +21.45 units
Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Twins Under 8.5, Lopez vs. Berrios (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Most games on the penultimate slate of the Major League Baseball season have no meaning whatsoever toward the standings, but when the Tigers and Brewers resume their three-game set in Milwaukee tonight, there will be plenty on the line.

Of course, the Brewers are the lone team in contention here, having already locked up a berth in the National League wild-card game at the very least. They now have the opportunity to pull even with the first-place Cubs in the NL Central, sitting just a half-game back following Chicago’s loss to the Cardinals Saturday afternoon.

Wade Miley will start on the mound for the Brew Crew, perhaps giving them the best chance of anyone on the pitching staff at getting back into first.

The veteran southpaw has been a big reason for the club’s postseason push throughout the summer, as he’s been very steady in his first year in Milwaukee.

In all 15 of his starts with the Brewers, Miley has held his opponent to three earned runs or less, and he’s logged at least five innings in all but two of them (one was because he left early with injury).

With the 31-year-old enjoying a career renaissance, it’s that consistency we’ll lean on to help cash this under. Miley also figures to have a favorable matchup in front of him, with Detroit manufacturing the third-fewest runs in the AL this season (3.91 per game). The Tigers have also dropped eight of their last 11 games.

Above all, the Tigers are rolling with a lineup that is riddled with dead bats. Just look on down from their No. 6 hitter — Grayson Greiner — who is followed by Dawel Lugo, Pete Kozma and the pitcher’s spot. None of those guys should scare us at all.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s batting order can certainly be scary — it’s plated 39 runs during the team’s current five-game winning streak. However, I think we can get just enough out of Tigers lefty Daniel Norris to help our cause.

Despite being limited to just 10 games (seven starts) and owning an 0-5 record, Norris actually hasn’t been bad. For instance, he’s registering a career-best 9.76 K/9 this season.

He’s also fared a bit better as a starter — his true role — than as a reliever. In fact, he’s posted a 4.88 ERA and 1.37 WHIP when starting, dwarfing the 6.48 ERA and 1.68 WHIP he’s hung up out of the bullpen.

Like his counterpart Saturday, Norris has also been consistent, yielding three runs or fewer in all but one of his starting assignments — including just three runs total in his last two outings.

With the over/under set at 8.5, you can afford to wait until game time to see if the line goes up. There’s also a chance it goes in the other direction.

Play: UNDER 8.5/9