Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Duffy, Lopez Go At It on the South Side

Credit:

Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Danny Duffy

  • Danny Duffy and Reynaldo Lopez will face each other on the South Side today
  • Duffy has showed some signs of turning the corner as of late, while Lopez has some glaring performance splits.
  • I see a few reasons to bet on this afternoon total that looks slightly off.

A nice and (mostly) relaxing win in last night’s Tigers-Astros under 8.5, as Mike Fiers got a little redemption with a quality start after Houston left him off last year’s postseason roster. Although we owe more thanks to Dallas Keuchel for his performance. Now let’s move on to the penultimate day of the “first half.”

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Record: 62-39-3, +18.95 units
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Astros Under 8.5, Fiers vs. Keuchel (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox | O/U: 9

2:10 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers: Danny Duffy (4-8, 4.89 ERA) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (4-6, 3.77 ERA)

After enduring some real lows in the first half of the season, Duffy owns a 4.89 ERA — his worst mark since his 2011 rookie season

Fortunately for the underrated 29-year-old southpaw, it looks like he’s turning a corner and has a chance to go into the break strong. While he’s been somewhat hit-or-miss recently, he has surrendered one run or fewer in four of his past six outings.

Duffy also just had one of his best showings of the year in his most recent start against Minnesota. He threw six shutout frames and reached the nine K mark for only the second time this year. That’s surprising considering his historical strikeout totals, but I think he can rack up some more in bunches today against a White Sox club that leads the American League in strikeouts per game (9.53). Chicago also strikes out once every 3.5 at-bats against left-handers.

The Sox will counter with youngster Reynaldo Lopez, who, like Duffy, will look to capitalize on current momentum. The 24-year-old Dominican has pitched into the seventh inning in five of his last seven assignments, and has looked fairly solid in his first full season in the South Side..

Although still early in the right-hander’s career, he’s exhibited some glaring performance splits. Lopez has pitched better by more than a run-and-a-half at home (3.48 ERA) compared to his away outings (4.99 ERA). That trend has glowed this year, as Lopez owns a 2-1 home record with a 2.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, which easily tops his road numbers: 2-5 record with 4.60 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Opponents are only hitting .194 off Lopez at home, too.

We’ll also lean on Lopez’s steady daytime output, as he’s etched a 2.83 ERA and .200 batting average against in his afternoon assignments. When you add everything up, this looks like a spot where both Lopez and Duffy can pitch well. Plus, we’ll have room for error with that juicy under of 9.

Play: UNDER 9 (-110)

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