Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports. Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Matthew Boyd (48) pitches against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park.
Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET Tuesday
- Tigers (Matt Boyd): +118
- Reds (Sal Romano): -131
- Over/under: 9 (u-115)
Bet to watch
Matt Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130)
Tonight, the Tigers head to Cincinnati for a not-so-anticipated interleague matchup. Even though the lines for the game itself don’t intrigue me all that much, the strikeout over/under for Detroit’s starter Matt Boyd does.
Boyd is not a stud pitcher by any means, but is having a solid year for the Tigers. He’s not a strikeout pitcher (7.05 K/9), but the southpaw should compile at least five tonight against the Reds.
FantasyLabs is actually predicting 6.5 strikeouts for Boyd. Based on the -130 juice on the over, the implied total for Boyd is 5.0 strikeouts. This 1.5 difference represents a 33% difference, which in my experience using the FantasyLabs props tool is good enough to pull the trigger. When this prop was initially posted, the juice was -115, so early bettors have already squeezed a little value out of it. (It wasn’t me, either.
The Reds actually have a below-average team strikeout rate as a whole this season. But FantasyLabs’ SO/AB metric in their models uses pitcher handedness as well as the starting lineup to come up with a better percentage we can look at. The Reds’ number of 25.4% is good for tenth-highest on tonight’s slate and should help Boyd out.
Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.